Blog

Inflation-adjusted state spending for K–12 has increased since 2020 (though growth has slowed compared to the McCleary response years)

Today, State Superintendent Reykdal noted the improved state revenue forecast and asked legislators to continue to increase state funding for K–12 education: With additional revenue expected, it is unclear whether further cuts to education are being considered. With a shortfall of nearly $1 billion per year in funding for the basic education that is granted […]

Since the current budget was adopted, revenues are up $166 million over the outlook period

According to the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC), revenues for funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) are now forecasted to be $1.856 billion higher over the outlook period (2023–25, 2025–27, and 2027–29) than had been forecasted in November. The forecast for 2025–27 increased by $827.4 million, to $75.276 billion. The forecast for 2027–29 increased […]

How the income tax proposal would work and how the revenues would be used

The income tax bill language has now been introduced. SB 6346 and HB 2724 are identical; SB 6346 is scheduled for a public hearing in the Senate Ways & Means Committee on Friday. Before I get into the details of the text, I want to make three overarching points: Calculating the tax The bill would […]

Gov. Ferguson’s budget proposal would result in a shortfall of $1.880 billion in 2027–29 (plus, a separation-of-powers issue at the ERFC?)

On Tuesday, the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) met to adopt an official outlook based on Gov. Ferguson’s 2026 supplemental operating budget proposal. The outlook helps to illuminate the long-term impacts of his proposal, but the treatment of reversions prompted the Office of Financial Management (OFM) to claim that there could be a separation-of-powers […]

Federal spending reductions are not the cause of Washington’s budget problem

The Office of Program Research (OPR) estimates that the budget shortfall is $1.5 billion in 2025–27 and $4.3 billion over the four-year outlook. That estimate includes the November revenue forecast and adjustments to the maintenance level (the cost of continuing current or planned services, adjusted for inflation and enrollment). Some policymakers have blamed the federal […]

Should reversions be included in the outlook?

Last week, the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) met to approve a methodology for the official budget outlook based on Gov. Ferguson’s proposed 2026 supplemental. (The outlook itself will be presented and approved by the ERFC on Jan. 27.) The first question staff had for the ERFC was about reversion assumptions. As the methodology […]

Treasurer’s office pointedly suggests the Legislature follow the four-year balanced budget requirement

The Office of the State Treasurer (OST) annually produces a Debt and Credit Analysis report that includes data on state debt and makes fiscal recommendations for the Legislature. For the past several years, the recommendations have been to target reserves at 10% of revenues, keep projected debt service costs to 5%–6% of revenues, and continue […]

To help the public and policymakers prioritize state spending, improve budget data transparency

A new bill, sponsored by Sen. Gildon, would improve state budget transparency. As I wrote in October, there are some major holes in Washington’s fiscal data website, fiscal.wa.gov. There is not enough detail provided for either historical spending or the current budget to enable policymakers and the public to make informed evaluations of budget proposals. […]

Governor proposes increasing the use of WEIA to supplant other funds for higher education

The workforce education investment account (WEIA, a fund subject to the outlook) may be used “only for higher education programs, higher education operations, higher education compensation, state-funded student aid programs, and workforce development” (RCW 43.79.201). Until last year, WEIA expenditures were statutorily required to supplement, not supplant, other funding for higher education. The enacted 2025–27 […]

Seattle Times on state spending and shortfalls

A new Seattle Times editorial argues that the Legislature should finally “draw a line on spending” this year. In the process, it hits many important budget sustainability themes: Meanwhile, the news side of the paper gives a preview of the legislative session. Gov. Bob Ferguson’s first year in office has been shaped by a state […]