Blog

HCA requests a 3.5% increase in appropriations, but the request doesn’t include an estimate of caseload changes since the current budget was adopted

The Health Care Authority (HCA) is requesting $9.762 billion from the general fund–state (GFS) for 2027–29, which is $327.3 million (3.5%) higher than enacted appropriations for 2025–27. That change is comprised of a carry-forward level reduction of $21.8 million, a maintenance level increase of $200.9 million, and a policy level increase of $148.2 million. The […]

OSPI requests a 9.9% increase in K–12 funding for 2027–29

The Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI) is requesting $33.552 billion from the general fund–state (GFS) for 2027–29. That’s $3.027 billion (9.9%) higher than enacted 2025–27 appropriations. Of the increase, $926.9 million is the carry-forward change, $3.9 million is the maintenance level change, and $2.096 billion is proposed new policy. The new policy would […]

Budget outlook accuracy declined in 2025–27; growth factors will be adjusted

On Friday, the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) met for the quarterly economic review, which will inform the upcoming revenue forecast. Additionally, the ERFC approved the growth factors that will be used to estimate the maintenance level (ML) for the second biennium (the outlook) of budgets adopted for the 2027–29 biennium. In 2024, the […]

State budgets regularly appropriate more than the revenue forecast

The root cause of the state budget shortfall is that in 2023–25, spending from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) exceeded revenues by $4.842 billion. Budgets adopted for 2025–27 have not narrowed the gap. (Budgets have still balanced by using one-time funds, including reserves and transfers from other accounts.) The gap was not the result […]

Fiscal notes and the income tax

When estimating the fiscal impact of a policy proposal, a key component is the baseline. To what is the new policy being compared? What revenues are expected under existing law, and how would the proposal change that? When agencies prepare fiscal notes during a legislative session, they all use the November revenue forecast as the […]

Washington’s state and local taxes and spending per capita ranked 13th highest among the states in 2024

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released state and local fiscal data for fiscal year 2024. This is the best source of data to use for comparisons of taxes and spending across states. To make those comparisons, we adjust the data by population and by personal income. State and local taxes per capita in Washington grew […]

Challenges to public investment impact disclosures

This fall, voters will consider I-645, which would repeal the income tax. Under a 2022 law, a public investment impact disclosure (PIID) will appear in the middle of the ballot title for I-645. The PIID has drawn two challenges. Under current law, any ballot measure that makes a change to a tax or fee and […]

Notes from the first meeting of the new committee on budget transparency and fiscal sustainability

The Joint Legislative-Executive Committee on Budget Transparency and Fiscal Sustainability—created in the 2026 supplemental budget—met for the first time on Monday. The state has contracted with Pew to support the committee and provide research on budget practices in Washington and other states. The meeting included a good staff presentation on the budget, including discussions of […]

New report: 2026 Fiscal Management Performance Review

The Washington Research Council considers budget sustainability to be a primary objective of state fiscal policy and key to our state’s fiscal health, the certainty of government services, and the competitiveness of Washington’s economy. This new periodic review of the state’s fiscal performance will evaluate Washington’s operating budget on multiple factors, including Spending Growth Sustainability, […]

The state isn’t the only government in Washington facing increasing liability costs

As I’ve written, the growing deficit in the state’s self-insurance liability account (SILA) is a significant problem for the state budget. Indemnity payouts have increased dramatically in recent years. According to the Office of Financial Management, the ending balance in SILA was -$963.9 million for FY 2026. That’s the ninth year in a row the […]