Blog

New collective bargaining agreements would increase general fund spending by $589 million in 2027–29

The collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) that the Office of Financial Management (OFM) negotiates with state and non-state employees would increase general fund–state (GFS) appropriations by $589.0 million in 2027–29. According to OFM, they would cost $772.9 million in 2029–31. These agreements have all been ratified. Notably, the estimated costs of the CBAs are substantially lower […]

The budget problem could be short-term, if the Legislature chooses

Following the revenue forecast last week, Sen. Robinson and Rep. Ormsby talked about the state having just a “short-term” budget problem. Similarly, Gov. Ferguson said, “Our state continues to face significant short-term budget challenges.” Whether or not the problem is “short-term” will depend on legislative action. The comments made by Sen. Robinson and Rep. Ormsby […]

Budget request odds and ends

As I’ve reviewed the 2027–29 budget requests from state agencies, I’ve written about the full requests of several major state agencies. (Previous posts on the 2027–29 budget requests are available here.) But there are also interesting policy proposals scattered among smaller agencies. For example, some notable policy proposals include: Finally, note that the Employment Security […]

DSHS requests a 15.6% increase in appropriations, mainly due to estimated caseload changes

The Department of Social and Health Services (DSHS) is requesting general fund–state (GFS) appropriations of $14.354 billion for 2027–29. If funded, that would be an increase of $1.936 billion (15.6%) over enacted appropriations for 2025–27. (The requests are provided by program within DSHS: Mental Health, Developmental Disabilities, Long-Term Care, Economic Services Administration, Vocational Rehabilitation, Administration, […]

Transportation revenue forecast decreased

Transportation revenues are now expected to total $8.704 billion in 2025–27, $10.491 billion in 2027–29, and $9.965 billion in 2029–31. For 2025–27, the forecast is just $971,741 lower than was forecasted in June. However, compared to the February forecast, on which the 2026 supplemental transportation budget was based, the new forecast for 2025–27 is down […]

Revenues for 2025–27 and 2027–29 are still lower than expected when 2026 budget was adopted, but income tax revenue estimates are increased going forward

Revenues to funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) are now forecasted to total $76.258 billion in 2025–27, $82.594 billion in 2027–29, and $94.121 billion in 2029–31. Compared to the June forecast, revenues are now estimated to be $22 million higher in 2025–27, $430 million higher in 2027–29, and $2.382 billion higher in 2029–31. The increases […]

Would I-645 “blow a $13 billion hole in the state budget”?

This week I saw an internet ad from the No on I-645 campaign that claims, “If passed, I-645 would blow a $13 billion hole in the state budget.” This is inaccurate and reflects a misunderstanding of our state budget. First, where is the “$13 billion” figure coming from? There’s no source listed, but a TV […]

DCYF budget request would decrease spending, but it doesn’t include caseload changes or liability costs

The Department of Children, Youth, and Families (DCYF) is requesting $4.617 billion from the general fund–state (GFS) for 2027–29. This would be a reduction of $694.0 million (13.1%) compared to enacted appropriations for 2025–27. The reduction in spending is entirely at the carry-forward level, which would decline by a net of $898.5 million. That includes […]

Dept. of Revenue requests an 11.4% spending increase (not including the expansion of the Working Families Tax Credit program)

The Department of Revenue (DOR) is requesting $1.087 billion in general fund–state (GFS) appropriations for 2027–29, which would be an increase of $111.0 million (11.4%) over 2025–27 appropriations. Of that increase, $20.8 million is at the carry-forward level. This includes $10.2 million for implementation of the state income tax. The budget request does not include […]

Commerce requests a 15.3% budget increase

The Department of Commerce is requesting general fund–state (GFS) appropriations of $974.9 million for 2027–29, which would be an increase of $129.5 million (15.3%) compared to enacted appropriations for 2025–27. The increase includes a carry-forward reduction of $193.3 million and a net new policy increase of $322.8 million. The request includes $88.0 million in 2027–29 […]