Blog

November transportation revenue forecast is lower than in September, but still higher than assumed in budget (plus, a drop in CCA auction revenue will affect transportation budget beginning in 2029–31)

Transportation revenues are now expected to total $8.135 billion in 2023–25, $8.842 billion in 2025–27, and $10.833 billion in 2027–29. Over this three-biennia period, the November transportation revenue forecast is $67.0 million less than forecasted in September, but it is still $69.0 million higher than expected in the transportation budget enacted this year. Inflation-adjusted transportation […]

Limiting new spending would be a good start

The Washington State Standard reports that Sen. June Robinson, chair of Senate Ways and Means, has told legislators not to make spending requests this year: “We don’t have money to pay for what is needed, let alone new spending that members might request.” Indeed, with the September revenue forecast, the unrestricted ending balance in funds […]

S&P Global no longer considers Washington’s credit rating outlook to be “positive”

Washington has been getting very high marks from the credit rating agencies in recent years, in part due to Washington’s constitutionally-required rainy day fund and four-year balanced budget requirement. This is important because it means Washington can sell bonds at lower interest rates, lowering the cost of borrowing and helping to limit the share of […]

How can we evaluate budget tradeoffs if we don’t know what we’re spending on specific programs?

The solution to the budget problem this year included about $7 billion in savings items over the outlook period. The savings items include some real program reductions, but they also include shifts to other funds or user fees and general efficiency savings, for example. Given the unsustainable nature of the enacted budget and the subsequent […]

Agency budget requests would deepen the already-expected budget shortfall

It was clear from the get-go that the 2025–27 operating budget was not sustainable. Even before the state revenue forecast was revised downward in June and September, the Office of Financial Management (OFM) told agencies, “We will very likely continue to face a challenging state budget environment in the coming year.” Consequently, OFM asked them […]

OSPI submits comparatively modest request for 2026 supplemental budget

The Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI) is requesting a $138.5 million (0.4%) increase in general fund–state (GFS) appropriations for the 2026 supplemental. (The proposal would cost $343.7 million in 2027–29.) Though modest compared to the amount of enacted GFS appropriations for K–12 in 2025–27 ($31.050 billion), the request includes some major new spending. […]

Despite downward revision, transportation revenues are still expected to exceed revenues assumed in budget

According to the September transportation revenue forecast, transportation revenues are expected to total $8.115 billion in 2023–25, $8.909 billion in 2025–27, and $10.853 billion in 2027–29. Over this three-biennia period, the revenue forecast is $144 million lower than forecasted in June. However, the September forecast is still $136 million higher than expected in the enacted […]

HCA budget request does not provide a good estimate of the cost of continuing current services or of addressing the impacts of H.R. 1

The enacted 2025–27 operating budget appropriates $8.924 billion from the general fund–state (GFS) for the Health Care Authority (HCA). For the 2026 supplemental budget, HCA is requesting an additional $201.0 million (2.3%) from the GFS for the biennium. The additional spending would cost $267.9 million in 2027–29. Most of this GFS impact comes from two […]

DSHS supplemental budget request includes spending to address federal changes to SNAP

The 2026 supplemental operating budget request from the Department of Social and Health Services (DSHS) includes increased state funding in response to the Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) changes made by the federal government in H.R. 1. (The Health Care Authority is the main administrator of Medicaid in Washington, but DSHS also receives […]

September revenue forecast is down, putting the current biennium in the red

Revenues for funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) are now expected to be $903 million lower over the outlook period than was forecasted in June. Compared to the June revenue forecast, the estimate for 2023–25 (which ended June 30) decreased by $13 million, to $67.124 billion. The forecast for 2025–27 decreased by $412 million, to […]