A new Seattle Times editorial argues that the Legislature should finally “draw a line on spending” this year. In the process, it hits many important budget sustainability themes:

• The editorial calls on legislators to “discontinue a habit of overspending tax revenues.” As the chart below shows, this habit is the crux of the problem. (See also: Limiting new spending would be a good start and Anatomy of the Projected State Budget Shortfall.)
• The editorial points out that using reserves and not producing a budget that balances over four years could lead to a credit downgrade. (See also: Washington would be worse off without the four-year balanced budget requirement, S&P Global no longer considers Washington’s credit rating outlook to be “positive,” and Credit rating agencies reaffirm Washington’s ratings, while noting some good and bad budget choices.)
• The editorial notes that we need “more scrutiny on state government expenditures.” (See also: How can we evaluate budget tradeoffs if we don’t know what we’re spending on specific programs?)

Meanwhile, the news side of the paper gives a preview of the legislative session.

Gov. Bob Ferguson’s first year in office has been shaped by a state budget crisis that was years in the making, and yet somehow arrived abruptly.

He and majority Democrats last year grappled with an estimated $16 billion gap between state tax collections and planned spending. In response, they made cuts but raised taxes to the tune of roughly $9 billion over four years.

As they prepare for the 2026 legislative session, which starts Monday, Ferguson and lawmakers are already staring at another shortfall, estimated at $2 billion.

The seeds of the state’s financial woes were planted over years of increased spending and rosy tax assumptions. But the full scope of the problem was only made public in late 2024, just after Ferguson was elected governor.

I have a few quibbles with this characterization. First, the “$16 billion gap” was over four years, and it was comprised of a $8.6 billion maintenance level shortfall plus $8.4 billion in new policy additions enacted by the Legislature last year. The policy additions were partially offset by $7 billion in savings items. (The Legislature increased spending on net.)

Second, the $2 billion figure cited by the Times is Gov. Ferguson’s estimate of the 2026 shortfall over two years, not four. Further, it is not the difference between existing resources and enacted 2025–27 appropriations—the estimate includes new policy changes the governor is proposing. The Office of Program Research estimates that the maintenance level shortfall is $1.5 billion in 2025–27 and $4.3 billion over four years.

Finally, although the specific size of the 2025 shortfall evolved over time, the fact that it would be substantial was known before the 2024 election.