Emily Makings

Congratulations, Kriss!

A bittersweet, and belated, announcement: Kriss Sjoblom, our research director and economist, retired at the end of last year. He had been with the Research Council for 30 years. During his time here, he was a member of the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors and served on the Commission on State Debt. He was also […]

December forecast of Climate Commitment Act revenues is $201.6 million lower than the June forecast (over five years)

The Department of Ecology estimates that carbon emission allowance auction proceeds will total $2.248 billion in 2023–25, $1.643 billion in 2025–27, and $1.248 billion in 2027–29. Compared to Ecology’s Nov. 2023 forecast (on which enacted appropriations from Climate Commitment Act accounts were based), the December 2024 forecast is $330.2 million lower for 2023–25 and $129.8 […]

Policy reductions total $2.753 billion for 2025–27 in Senate Republican proposal; they would be offset by $1.491 billion in policy increases

The Senate Republican 2025–27 budget proposal would increase appropriations from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) by $3.635 billion over enacted 2023–25 appropriations. That includes maintenance level increases (the cost of continuing current services, adjusted for inflation and caseloads) and net policy level decreases of $1.263 billion. The net new policy proposals are comprised of […]

Senate Republican budget proposal would increase spending by 5.1% and not raise taxes

Today Senate Republicans proposed an operating budget for 2025–27 and a 2025 supplemental to the 2023–25 operating budget. It is unusual for the minority party to propose a full budget; the last time was in 2022 (in the House). This proposal provides another set of options for closing the projected budget shortfall; as we wrote […]

Using state reserves to fund new spending is one of the reasons we have a budget problem today

Former Gov. Inslee’s 2025–27 operating budget proposal included a transfer of the balance of the budget stabilization account (BSA, or the rainy day fund) to the general fund–state (GFS) in FY 2026. Then, Inslee proposed returning the money to the BSA in 2027–29. The proposed transfer acted as bridge funding for new spending until Inslee’s […]

Principles guiding Gov. Ferguson’s list of budget savings are sound, but the list includes items that aren’t true savings

Gov. Ferguson has released a list of budget savings options totaling $19.8 million in 2023–25 and $1.844 billion in 2025–27. According to the governor, the savings he presented today would total $3.926 billion over four years, and they are in addition to the savings former Gov. Inslee included in his Book 2 (preferred) budget proposal […]

Inslee’s Book 1 budget takes one spending reduction path; the Legislature could choose a different set of spending cuts to solve the budget problem

Each December, the governor is required to submit an operating budget to the Legislature that balances within existing revenues (the “Book 1” or “current law” budget). The governor may also propose a budget that increases revenues (the “Book 2” or “new law” budget). The budget proposed by former Gov. Inslee that included B&O tax increases […]

Caseload and utilization changes make up less than 40% of the maintenance level increase for 2025–27

The estimated budget shortfall for 2025–27 is the amount by which the estimated maintenance level exceeds existing resources. (Some estimates of the shortfall also throw in the cost of collective bargaining agreements with employees and other new policies.) The maintenance level for 2025–27, as estimated in former Gov. Inslee’s operating budget proposal, is $77.227 billion […]

Several tax increases under consideration in Washington would be the largest in over 30 years (at least)

State revenues for funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) are currently expected to increase by $5.040 billion from 2023–25 to 2025–27. The estimated budget problem for 2025–27 is the result of legislative spending choices. Nevertheless, several tax increases have been introduced in the Legislature and proposed by former Gov. Inslee and the Senate Democratic Caucus. […]

Remaining tax increases floated by Senate Democrats would increase property and real estate excise taxes and add new taxes on self-storage units and firearms

As I’ve written, the revenue options under consideration by the Senate Democratic Caucus (SDC) include business and occupation (B&O) tax increases, a payroll tax, a wealth tax, and increases to the capital gains tax rate. The remaining tax increases included in their options would increase the property tax growth limit, increase the real estate excise […]