Emily Makings

Fiscal notes and the income tax

When estimating the fiscal impact of a policy proposal, a key component is the baseline. To what is the new policy being compared? What revenues are expected under existing law, and how would the proposal change that? When agencies prepare fiscal notes during a legislative session, they all use the November revenue forecast as the […]

Workers’ compensation benefit costs are highest in Washington

Washington’s workers’ compensation benefit costs per covered worker remain the highest in the country, according to new data from the National Academy of Social Insurance (NASI). NASI’s August 2026 report covers data from 2023. In 2023, benefit costs in Washington were $875.41 per covered worker, up from $854.31 in 2022 (as revised). The next highest […]

Washington’s state and local taxes and spending per capita ranked 13th highest among the states in 2024

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released state and local fiscal data for fiscal year 2024. This is the best source of data to use for comparisons of taxes and spending across states. To make those comparisons, we adjust the data by population and by personal income. State and local taxes per capita in Washington grew […]

Challenges to public investment impact disclosures

This fall, voters will consider I-645, which would repeal the income tax. Under a 2022 law, a public investment impact disclosure (PIID) will appear in the middle of the ballot title for I-645. The PIID has drawn two challenges. Under current law, any ballot measure that makes a change to a tax or fee and […]

Notes from the first meeting of the new committee on budget transparency and fiscal sustainability

The Joint Legislative-Executive Committee on Budget Transparency and Fiscal Sustainability—created in the 2026 supplemental budget—met for the first time on Monday. The state has contracted with Pew to support the committee and provide research on budget practices in Washington and other states. The meeting included a good staff presentation on the budget, including discussions of […]

The state isn’t the only government in Washington facing increasing liability costs

As I’ve written, the growing deficit in the state’s self-insurance liability account (SILA) is a significant problem for the state budget. Indemnity payouts have increased dramatically in recent years. According to the Office of Financial Management, the ending balance in SILA was -$963.9 million for FY 2026. That’s the ninth year in a row the […]

What to make of the high capital gains tax collections for tax year 2025?

The Department of Revenue reported last month that capital gains tax collections for tax year 2025, which were collected in April and May 2026, totaled over $1.5 billion. (This is not the final number. All taxpayers must submit estimated payments in April, but taxpayers with filing extensions will finalize their payments in October 2026.) According […]

Happy Fiscal New Year!

Today is the first day of fiscal year 2027, which is the second year of the 2025–27 biennium. Washington’s current budget troubles are the direct result of the Legislature appropriating significantly more than was expected in revenues in 2023–25. Ultimately, actual spending from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) in that biennium exceeded ongoing NGFO […]

Slower economic activity reduces the revenue forecast, but the budget outlook improves given capital gains tax revenues

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) estimates that revenues from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) will total $76.237 billion in 2025–27, $82.164 billion in 2027–29, and $91.739 billion in 2029–31. The new revenue forecast incorporates all the legislative changes made during the 2026 session, including the adoption of the income tax. Economic changes […]

Adopted pension contribution rates could save the state $325 million in 2027–29

On Tuesday, the Pension Funding Council adopted 2027–29 employer contribution rates for state pension plans. The rates for 2027–29, as calculated by the Office of the State Actuary (OSA), are expected to decline compared to 2025–27. OSA estimates that the adopted rates will reduce state spending by $325 million in 2027–29 (compared to current rates). […]