Emily Makings

Balancing FY 2026 with budgetary shifts

Fiscal year 2026, which begins on July 1, 2025 and is the first year of the 2025–27 biennium, appears to be the trickiest year to balance in the operating budget. First, the deficit between the maintenance level (the cost of continuing current services, adjusted for inflation and enrollment) and forecasted revenues is larger in 2026 […]

House Chair proposes a lower level of appropriations in 2025–27 than the Senate Chair, but the House proposal would cost significantly more in 2027–29

The House Appropriations Committee Chair has proposed a 2025–27 operating budget that would appropriate $77.758 billion from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO). This would be an increase of $5.813 billion (8.1%) compared to current appropriations. Although this is $711.9 million less than would be appropriated under the Senate Chair’s proposal in 2025–27, the House […]

Senate Chair proposes increasing appropriations by 9.1%

The Senate Ways & Means Committee Chair’s 2025–27 operating budget proposal would appropriate $78.470 billion from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO). Compared to current appropriations (as revised in 2024), this would be an increase of $6.525 billion (9.1%). According to the estimated outlook, this increase includes $1.630 billion in net new policy items. The […]

House Democrats propose $13 billion in new taxes

House Democrats released their tax proposals today. They include a financial intangibles (wealth) tax, business and occupation (B&O) tax surcharges, and an increase to the property tax growth limit. Altogether, House Democrats estimate that these proposals would increase revenues by $13.1 billion over four years. The estimated maintenance level shortfall is $8.7 billion. The table […]

Washington’s revenues are not volatile, and the budget shortfall is the result of legislative choices

Senate Democrats released a video earlier this week to discuss some of the reasons Washington is facing a budget shortfall. It is not accurate. First, Ways & Means Committee Vice Chair for Finance Frame says, “Our state relies on sales taxes, which fluctuate with consumer spending, making revenue unpredictable.” This characterization of sales tax revenues […]

To close an estimated $8.7 billion maintenance level shortfall, Senate Democrats propose $17 billion in net new taxes

Today Senate Democrats released their revenue proposals for the 2025–27 operating budget. (The budget itself will be released on Monday.) They would impose a wealth tax (dubbed the financial intangibles tax) and a payroll expense tax, increase the property tax growth limit, and repeal several tax exemptions. They would also reduce the state sales tax […]

With revenue forecast, the maintenance level shortfall is now about $8.7 billion over four years

The Legislature will use the March revenue forecast to write the 2025–27 operating budget. As I wrote yesterday, the Legislature has $1.85 billion less to work with over the outlook period than it did when it enacted the current budget. With the new forecast, I estimate that the maintenance level shortfall (the deficit between current […]

The transportation revenue forecast has improved since November, but revenues are still lower than assumed in the enacted transportation budget

The March 2025 forecast of transportation revenues is up compared to the November 2024 forecast. However, the new forecast is still significantly lower than the February 2024 forecast (on which the enacted budget is based). Compared to November, the new forecast for the current 2023–25 biennium increased by $49.2 million, to $6.855 billion. The forecast […]

NGFO revenues are now forecasted to be $844 million lower than in the November forecast

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) now estimates that revenues from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) will be $844 million lower over the outlook period than anticipated in the November 2024 forecast. Compared to the November forecast, the forecast for the current 2023–25 biennium increased by $55 million, to $66.445 billion. The forecast […]

Congratulations, Kriss!

A bittersweet, and belated, announcement: Kriss Sjoblom, our research director and economist, retired at the end of last year. He had been with the Research Council for 30 years. During his time here, he was a member of the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors and served on the Commission on State Debt. He was also […]