Blog

Ecology’s carbon emission allowance auction revenue forecast, and an accounting of how the money is being spent

The state’s current forecast of carbon emission allowance auction proceeds estimates that revenues will be $1.092 billion higher than expected when the 2023–25 biennial budget was enacted last year. Gov. Inslee’s supplemental budget proposals would appropriate $915.2 million of that. Revenues The climate commitment act (CCA) was enacted in 2021. The first carbon emission allowance […]

Gov. Inslee’s transportation budget proposal would add funding for fish passage barrier removal, but transportation funding challenges loom

Gov. Inslee’s proposed supplemental transportation budget would increase 2023–25 appropriations from all funds by $1.580 billion (11.6%). Of that, $1.035 billion is considered maintenance level and $544.9 million is new policy. (Of the total change, $418.0 million is from federal funds.) Generally, the maintenance level is the cost of continuing current services, adjusted for inflation […]

On the importance of independence in revenue forecasting, and some context on the transportation revenue forecast process

KING 5 reports that the state Department of Transportation’s gas tax forecaster is suing the state “for allegedly retaliating against him for refusing to keep quiet about his economic forecast on the state’s gas price.” Whatever the merits of the forecaster’s claims, this story illustrates how important independent revenue forecasts are. Indeed, the state deserves […]

The November transportation revenue forecast doesn’t give transportation budget writers much to work with

The Transportation Revenue Forecast Council now estimates that transportation revenues will total $6.990 billion in 2023–25. That’s $56.4 million (0.8%) less than was expected for the biennium in the March transportation revenue forecast (on which the current transportation budget was based). As we discussed in our recent report on transportation revenues, the transportation revenue forecast […]

WSDOT is requesting $1.060 billion more for 2023–25—not including additional funding for culverts

The Department of Transportation (WSDOT) has requested $1.060 billion from all funds for the 2024 supplemental. That would be an increase of 10.4% over enacted 2023–25 appropriations for the agency. However, the supplemental request does not include the estimated additional $725 million that could be needed for fish passage barrier removal in 2023–25. Additionally, the […]

The cost of removing fish passage barriers could double, which would substantially impact the transportation budget

The Seattle Times has a troubling report on new estimates of the cost of removing fish passage barriers in Washington. In 2013, a federal court issued a permanent injunction requiring “the state to significantly increase the effort for removing state-owned culverts that block habitat for salmon and steelhead by 2030.” Since then, the state has […]

New report: The Transportation Budget, Transportation Revenues, and Long-Term Funding Challenges

Washington enacted a $17 billion, 16-year transportation revenue package last year, and this year the Legislature adopted a $13.616 billion transportation budget for 2023–25. Adjusted for inflation, 2023–25 appropriations are 18.8% higher than appropriations in 2021–23. Transportation budgets are mainly funded by state sources. State funds include forecasted revenues from transportation-related sources and money raised […]

Transportation revenue forecast is not much changed since March

Last week state agencies presented the September transportation revenue forecast. The transportation revenue forecast includes the gas tax, vehicle and driver fees, tolls, ferry fares, the 0.3% vehicle sales and use tax, the rental car tax, and other transportation-related sources. The forecast does not include revenues from the carbon emission allowance auctions. For 2023–25, the […]

State transportation revenues are estimated to track closely to what had been estimated in Feb. 2022, but they are still below pre-pandemic estimates

On Monday, the Transportation Revenue Forecast Council adopted a new transportation revenue forecast. (The documents were posted yesterday afternoon.) Under the forecast, the state is estimated to collect $6.598 billion in transportation revenues in 2021–23 and $7.046 billion in 2023–25. Looking at the 10-year forecast window, the March 2023 forecast estimates that transportation revenues will […]

The transportation revenue forecast would be more transparent under a proposal to move responsibility for it to the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council

On Monday, the Senate Transportation Committee heard ESHB 1838, which was passed unanimously by the House earlier this month. The bill would move responsibility for the transportation revenue forecast from transportation agency staff to the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC). This would substantially improve transparency. Under current law, the Office of Financial Management (OFM) […]