Election results do not change our estimate of a $5 billion state budget shortfall
On election night, the Seattle Times reported that I-2109, I-2117, and I-2124 had been rejected. The story added that the results “mean that Washington’s Legislature will likely avoid a major budget shortfall in the upcoming legislative session.” That is not accurate. Our estimate of the substantial projected operating budget shortfall did not assume passage of […]
October 02 , 2024 - Emily Makings
A new transportation revenue forecast: the great, the good, and the ugly
On Friday, the new Transportation Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (TERFC) approved its first transportation revenue forecast. This is great news for the public because it’s a huge improvement in transparency. It’s good news for the Legislature because the transportation revenue forecast is no longer on autopilot. But it’s also bad news because revenues are […]
July 08 , 2024 - Emily Makings
June forecast of climate commitment act revenues for 2023-25 is down $313.9 million
The Department of Ecology now estimates that carbon emission allowance auction proceeds will total $2.264 billion in 2023–25. That’s $313.9 million less than had been forecast in November. Similarly, the new forecast for 2025–27 is $139.0 million below the November forecast. Revenues from the December 2023 auction were $55.0 million higher than assumed in the […]
July 02 , 2024 - Emily Makings
The state’s gross fuel tax revenue forecast has not been meaningfully updated in a year
The June transportation revenue forecast was presented last Wednesday and published yesterday, but I won’t report the total numbers. They are dubious and irrelevant. The June forecast is suspect because the estimates for gross fuel tax revenues haven’t been updated since September 2023 (and in September, the change was very small—only $1 million over ten […]
March 21 , 2024 - Emily Makings
How the state budgets prepare for the possibility that the climate commitment act will be repealed (as revenues in the latest carbon auction came in low)
Climate commitment act (CCA) funds (proceeds from the carbon emission allowance auctions) are appropriated in the operating, capital, and transportation budgets. The supplemental budgets passed by the Legislature this year appropriate CCA funds assuming the current revenue forecast, but they delay a large share of those appropriations so that they will be effective only if […]
March 19 , 2024 - Emily Makings
Studies and other interesting provisos in the supplemental transportation budget
Washington is facing considerable transportation revenue and cost challenges. As I noted in my post about the conference report for the supplemental transportation budget, the budget includes language directing the state Department of Transportation (WSDOT) to “seek consequential cost reduction opportunities” for the SR 520 West End project and requires a review of planned procurement […]
March 06 , 2024 - Emily Makings
Supplemental transportation budget conference report would increase appropriations by 8.1%, add language addressing cost challenges
The conference report for the supplemental transportation budget would increase appropriations from all budgeted funds by $1.099 billion (8.1%). Revised 2023–25 appropriations would be $14.714 billion, which is $24.3 million higher than the version passed by the Senate Feb. 27 and $252.0 million higher than the version passed by the House Feb. 24. (I wrote […]
March 01 , 2024 - Emily Makings
Could unexpectedly high pension investment returns help to fund transportation?
The state pension system’s investments earned $22 billion more than expected in fiscal year 2021. These gains will be factored in to the calculations of contribution rates over time. All else equal, contribution rates will decline. That means savings for the state and local employers in the system. At the same time, as we’ve written, […]
February 28 , 2024 - Emily Makings
Senate-passed transportation budget would appropriate $227.7 million more than the House-passed budget
The House and Senate have each passed supplemental transportation budgets. The House-passed budget would increase 2023–25 appropriations from all funds by $846.5 million, bringing revised 2023–25 appropriations to $14.462 billion. The Senate-passed supplemental would increase appropriations from all funds by $1.074 billion, bringing revised 2023–25 appropriations to $14.690 billion. The two proposals do not quite […]
February 16 , 2024 - Emily Makings
The state’s gross fuel tax revenue forecast appears to be on autopilot
The Feb. 2024 transportation revenue forecast estimates that transportation revenues (including, e.g., revenues from motor vehicle fuel taxes; licenses, permits, and fees; ferries; and tolls) will be $6.990 billion in 2023–25. That’s an increase of 0.01% compared to the Nov. 2023 forecast and a decrease of 0.79% compared to the March 2023 forecast (on which […]