On Monday, the Senate Transportation Committee heard ESHB 1838, which was passed unanimously by the House earlier this month. The bill would move responsibility for the transportation revenue forecast from transportation agency staff to the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC). This would substantially improve transparency.

Under current law, the Office of Financial Management (OFM) is responsible for adopting quarterly transportation revenue forecasts, which it does through the Transportation Revenue Forecast Council. The forecasts, which cover 10 years, are produced by staff of the Department of Licensing (DOL), Department of Transportation (WSDOT), and Washington State Patrol.

There is currently very little visibility of the transportation revenue forecast. They are adopted with no fanfare (and no TVW coverage). The March transportation revenue forecast was adopted on Monday, but the forecast has not yet been posted by OFM. Generally, the forecast documents include a lot of interesting information, but they are very dense and sometimes hard to follow.

ESHB 1838 would require the ERFC to prepare and approve the transportation revenue forecast quarterly, beginning in September 2024. The bill specifies that the transportation revenues that would be forecasted include, but are “not limited to, transportation taxes, vehicle fees, drivers’ fees, fares and tolls, and aircraft and vessel fees.” The transportation revenue forecast would cover six years.

At the Senate Transportation Committee meeting on Monday, Rep. Fey (the bill’s sponsor) said that the purpose of the bill was that WSDOT has had “serious difficulty” in filling forecasting positions. (Sen. Liias asked Rep. Fey how he would feel about adding climate commitment act revenues to the forecast. Fey did not object.) OFM testified that the bill would provide more visibility for the forecast and probably help with the recruitment issue. OFM also noted that it would be beneficial to have the independent ERFC preparing the transportation revenue forecast rather than the agencies that receive funding from the revenues.

Additionally, ESHB 1838 would change the membership of the ERFC. Under current law, it is made up of seven people, including the state treasurer. Two are appointed by the governor. House and Senate Democrats and House and Senate Republicans each appoint one. Currently, in addition to the treasurer, the appointees are the director of OFM, the director of the Department of Revenue (DOR), the Senate Ways & Means Committee chair and ranking member, the House Appropriations Committee chair, and the House Finance Committee ranking member.

As passed by the House, ESHB 1838 would make the appointees explicit and increase their number. The director of OFM and the state treasurer would be voting members for purposes of both the operating and transportation revenue forecasts.

Voting members for the operating budget revenue forecast and budget outlook would include the director of DOR, the chair and ranking member of House Appropriations, the chair and ranking member of House Finance, the chair and ranking member of Senate Ways & Means, and the vice-chair and assistant ranking member of Senate Ways & Means.

Voting members for the transportation revenue forecast would be the director of DOL, the chair and ranking member of the House Transportation Committee, and the chair and ranking member of the Senate Transportation Committee.