Last week state agencies presented the September transportation revenue forecast. The transportation revenue forecast includes the gas tax, vehicle and driver fees, tolls, ferry fares, the 0.3% vehicle sales and use tax, the rental car tax, and other transportation-related sources. The forecast does not include revenues from the carbon emission allowance auctions.

For 2023–25, the new forecast estimates that transportation revenues will total $6.996 billion, which is an increase of 5.5% over 2021–23. However, it is $49.5 million less (-0.7%) than was expected for the biennium in the March forecast (which informed the current transportation budget).

The Legislature’s practice has been to adopt transportation budgets that balance over six years (as they include long-term capital projects). For the six-year period through 2027–29 (and including updated 2021–23 revenues), the September forecast is up $62.7 million (0.2%) compared to the March forecast.

The chart below shows the history of the forecasted transportation revenues and compares the September forecast to the March forecast and the pre-pandemic February 2020 forecast. Revenues aren’t expected to exceed the pre-pandemic estimates until 2029.

The largest component of the revenue forecast is the gross fuel tax. As the following chart shows, fuel tax revenues are not expected to reach the pre-pandemic estimates during the forecast window. Both fuel tax revenues and total revenues are expected to decline in fiscal year 2024.