On Monday, the Transportation Revenue Forecast Council adopted a new transportation revenue forecast. (The documents were posted yesterday afternoon.) Under the forecast, the state is estimated to collect $6.598 billion in transportation revenues in 2021–23 and $7.046 billion in 2023–25. Looking at the 10-year forecast window, the March 2023 forecast estimates that transportation revenues will be 1.72% below what had been forecasted in Nov. 2022. However, transportation revenues are now estimated to be 0.6% higher over 10 years than anticipated in Feb. 2022 (the forecast on which the current budget is based).

The chart below shows state transportation revenues over time. It shows the Feb. 2022 and March 2023 forecasts, and it compares them to the pre-pandemic Feb. 2020 alternative forecast. (At the time, I-976 had not yet been ruled unconstitutional. The alternative forecast estimated what revenues would be if I-976 were not in place.) The March 2023 forecast closely tracks that of Feb. 2022, but it is still below the pre-pandemic forecast.

The second chart shows gross fuel tax revenues (which are the largest component of total state transportation revenues). Here, the March 2023 forecast is well below that of Feb. 2022.

Apparently the House Transportation Committee chair’s transportation budget proposal will be available on Monday the 27^th and the Senate chair’s proposal will be available on Wednesday the 29^th. ESHB 1838, which would move responsibility for the transportation revenue forecast to the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, is scheduled for executive session in the Senate Transportation Committee this afternoon.