KING 5 reports that the state Department of Transportation’s gas tax forecaster is suing the state “for allegedly retaliating against him for refusing to keep quiet about his economic forecast on the state’s gas price.” Whatever the merits of the forecaster’s claims, this story illustrates how important independent revenue forecasts are.

Indeed, the state deserves credit for enacting ESHB 1838 earlier this year. The bill transfers responsibility for the transportation revenue forecast—beginning with the September 2024 forecast—from various agencies to the independent Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC).

Currently, the Office of Financial Management (OFM) is responsible for the transportation revenue forecast (RCW 43.88.020(10)). It does that via the Transportation Revenue Forecast Council, which is effectively made up of technical staff from WSDOT, the Department of Licensing, the State Patrol, and the ERFC. These technical forecasters each prepare a part of the forecast, which is then stitched together and presented on the same day as the ERFC’s operating budget revenue forecast. But there is no TVW coverage of the transportation revenue forecast presentations and no publicly posted meeting schedule. (The forecasts themselves are available after the fact here.)

At a hearing on ESHB 1838 in March, Rep. Fey said that the purpose of the bill was that WSDOT had had “serious difficulty” hiring forecasters. OFM testified in favor of the bill, noting that it would improve visibility of the forecast and that it would be more appropriate to have an independent forecaster rather than rely on the agencies that receive funding from the revenues. (For more on the bill and the hearing see this post.)

As we wrote in our recent report on transportation revenues, the state is facing serious transportation funding challenges. Independent (and more visible) revenue forecasts will provide the most reliable estimates of how big the problems are.