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Inflation-adjusted per capita spending has grown by an average of 7.6% a biennium since the Great Recession, compared to an average of 2.8% before the Great Recession

Washington’s spending has grown dramatically since the Great Recession, even after accounting for inflation and population growth. Under Gov. Inslee’s operating budget proposal, inflation-adjusted per capita spending from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) would continue to increase. From 1993–95 to 2005–07, inflation-adjusted NGFO spending per capita grew by 18.2% (biennial growth averaged 2.8% a […]

Will the ECEAP entitlement ever be implemented?

The Early Childhood Education and Assistance Program (ECEAP) is a state-funded preschool program. It is currently scheduled to become an entitlement in SY 2026–27. However, Gov. Inslee’s budget would delay the entitlement until SY 2030–31, which is beyond the budget outlook window. If the Legislature enacts this delay, it would be the fourth time it […]

How big is the operating budget shortfall? (Hint: not $16 billion)

For 2025–27, the estimated cost of continuing current services is expected to exceed current resources. As we showed in an October report, this is not a revenue shortfall—revenues are expected to grow by $5.040 billion in 2025–27 and by $5.414 billion in 2027–29. Instead, the estimated shortfall is the result of legislative spending choices over […]

Compensation increases account for most of the net policy increases in Gov. Inslee’s operating budget proposal

Gov. Inslee’s operating budget proposal estimates that the maintenance level for 2025–27 (the cost of continuing current services, adjusted for inflation and enrollment) is $77.360 billion. That is $5.415 billion (7.5%) higher than enacted 2023–25 appropriations. On top of that, Gov. Inslee proposes adding a net of $2.086 billion in new policy, including $1.210 for […]

Gov. Inslee proposes a 10.4% increase in appropriations, funded in part by a wealth tax and B&O tax increases

Gov. Inslee’s 2025–27 operating budget proposal would appropriate $79.446 billion from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO). That is $7.501 billion (10.4%) higher than enacted appropriations for 2023–25. Of the spending increase, $2.097 billion would be new policy. The proposal would leave an unrestricted NGFO ending balance of $497 million in 2025–27 and $2.376 billion […]

Maintenance level changes appear to be driven by K–12, DCYF

As I wrote earlier this week, the House Office of Program Research (OPR) estimates that the maintenance level (the cost of continuing current services, adjusted for inflation and enrollment) for funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) will increase by $4.377 billion in 2025–27 and by $6.367 billion in 2027–29. A full accounting of the maintenance […]

UW requests more state support for the behavioral health teaching facility and for UW employee compensation

The University of Washington’s 2025–27 operating budget request is just 2.1% above 2023–25 general fund–state (GFS) appropriations. However, the request includes substantial maintenance and policy increases that are offset by a large carry-forward level reduction. (See the box at the bottom of this post for budget and fund terminology.) The carry-forward level is reduced by […]

WWU requests an increase to its per-pupil state funding

Western Washington University is requesting an increase to its general fund–state (GFS) budget of $77.7 million (38.1%) for 2025–27. Most of that increase ($71.8 million) would be new policy. (See the box at the bottom of this post for budget and fund terminology.) The total increase for WWU would significantly exceed the total requested changes […]

Office of Program Research estimates that the budget shortfall is $6.7 billion over four years

The Office of Program Research (OPR, nonpartisan staff for the House of Representatives) presented a budget preview to the Appropriations Committee yesterday. OPR’s preliminary estimate of the unrestricted ending balance for funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) is -$4.351 billion in 2025–27 and -$6.700 billion in 2027–29. The OPR figures incorporate the November caseload forecast. […]

Dept. of Health wants to maintain pandemic-era funding levels in 2025–27

The Department of Health (DOH) has requested $459.3 million from the general fund–state (GFS) for 2025–27, which would be an increase of 22.5% over 2023–25. DOH funding increased substantially in 2021–23 due to pandemic-related programs and enhanced funding for foundational public health. Appropriations decreased in 2023–25, but they are still 76.9% higher than 2019–21 spending […]