Blog

No help for operating budget writers in the November revenue and caseload forecasts

As Kriss wrote last week, state revenues are now expected to be lower than forecasted in September. Compared to the February revenue forecast (on which the current budget is based), revenues from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) are now expected to be $1.008 billion lower through the outlook period (2023–25, 2025–27, and 2027–29). Note, […]

Forecast of state revenues decreased

At its quarterly meeting this afternoon, the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) updated its forecasts of state revenues. These new forecasts decrease the amount of revenue expected over the current and next bienniums combined by a total of $269.5 million. Budget reports from legislative fiscal committees typically roll up four accounts: the general […]

Report on October state tax collections: revenues were $66 million greater than the forecasted amount

On Friday (November 15) the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) issued its monthly report on general fund revenue collections. The report is available here. Revenues for the most recent month were $66.0 million greater than the forecasted amount. However, this “positive variance” was wholly due to transfers of unclaimed property to the general […]

Department of Commerce seeks to build on its recent budget increases (plus, a document recording fee “backfill”)

General fund–state (GFS) appropriations for the Department of Commerce more than doubled in 2021–23 and 2023–25. Commerce’s budget request for 2025–27 would increase its GFS appropriations by $89.3 million (7.8%) over 2023–25. This includes a carry-forward level reduction of $381.0 million, a maintenance level increase of $15.5 million, and new policy increases of $454.9 million. […]

Department of Fish and Wildlife requests a 37% budget increase

General fund–state (GFS) spending for the Department of Fish and Wildlife (DFW) has increased substantially since 2017–19. Now, the department is requesting an operating budget increase of 37.2% for 2025–27. Under the request, GFS appropriations would be $475.0 million. (See the box at the bottom of this post for budget and fund terminology.) New policy […]

Proposed Seattle bill would make the payroll expense tax permanent and add reserves to address the tax’s volatility

A bill (CB 120912) has been introduced in the Seattle City Council that would make several changes to the city’s payroll expense tax (PET). We wrote in detail about the tax, which is highly concentrated and volatile, in a policy brief last year. The tax is levied on compensation paid in Seattle to employees, and […]

Seattle is considering a 2% capital gains tax

A bill has been introduced in Seattle City Council to impose a 2% capital gains tax on the sale or exchange of long-term capital assets. The bill is being discussed today as part of Seattle’s budget process, and it looks like the Select Budget Committee could vote on it next week. The bill is mostly […]

OFM: An estimated four-year operating budget deficit of $10–$12 billion

The Office of Financial Management (OFM) estimates that “the magnitude of the operating budget deficit is between $10 and $12 billion over the four-year period.” OFM is asking agencies “to propose operating and transportation budget reductions, starting with pauses or delays of programs, and to identify savings options for both the 2025 supplemental budgets and […]

Office of Public Defense requests an 85.6% budget increase, mainly to increase funding for cities and counties

The Office of Public Defense (OPD) is requesting $272.2 million from the general fund–state (GFS) for 2025–27. That would be an increase of $125.6 million (85.6%) over enacted 2023–25 appropriations for the agency. The increase would mostly be new policy items. (See the box at the bottom of this post for budget and fund terminology.) […]

Election results do not change our estimate of a $5 billion state budget shortfall

On election night, the Seattle Times reported that I-2109, I-2117, and I-2124 had been rejected. The story added that the results “mean that Washington’s Legislature will likely avoid a major budget shortfall in the upcoming legislative session.” That is not accurate. Our estimate of the substantial projected operating budget shortfall did not assume passage of […]