Blog

Gov. Ferguson’s budget proposal would result in a shortfall of $1.880 billion in 2027–29 (plus, a separation-of-powers issue at the ERFC?)

On Tuesday, the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) met to adopt an official outlook based on Gov. Ferguson’s 2026 supplemental operating budget proposal. The outlook helps to illuminate the long-term impacts of his proposal, but the treatment of reversions prompted the Office of Financial Management (OFM) to claim that there could be a separation-of-powers […]

Federal spending reductions are not the cause of Washington’s budget problem

The Office of Program Research (OPR) estimates that the budget shortfall is $1.5 billion in 2025–27 and $4.3 billion over the four-year outlook. That estimate includes the November revenue forecast and adjustments to the maintenance level (the cost of continuing current or planned services, adjusted for inflation and enrollment). Some policymakers have blamed the federal […]

Should reversions be included in the outlook?

Last week, the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) met to approve a methodology for the official budget outlook based on Gov. Ferguson’s proposed 2026 supplemental. (The outlook itself will be presented and approved by the ERFC on Jan. 27.) The first question staff had for the ERFC was about reversion assumptions. As the methodology […]

Treasurer’s office pointedly suggests the Legislature follow the four-year balanced budget requirement

The Office of the State Treasurer (OST) annually produces a Debt and Credit Analysis report that includes data on state debt and makes fiscal recommendations for the Legislature. For the past several years, the recommendations have been to target reserves at 10% of revenues, keep projected debt service costs to 5%–6% of revenues, and continue […]

To help the public and policymakers prioritize state spending, improve budget data transparency

A new bill, sponsored by Sen. Gildon, would improve state budget transparency. As I wrote in October, there are some major holes in Washington’s fiscal data website, fiscal.wa.gov. There is not enough detail provided for either historical spending or the current budget to enable policymakers and the public to make informed evaluations of budget proposals. […]

Governor proposes increasing the use of WEIA to supplant other funds for higher education

The workforce education investment account (WEIA, a fund subject to the outlook) may be used “only for higher education programs, higher education operations, higher education compensation, state-funded student aid programs, and workforce development” (RCW 43.79.201). Until last year, WEIA expenditures were statutorily required to supplement, not supplant, other funding for higher education. The enacted 2025–27 […]

Seattle Times on state spending and shortfalls

A new Seattle Times editorial argues that the Legislature should finally “draw a line on spending” this year. In the process, it hits many important budget sustainability themes: Meanwhile, the news side of the paper gives a preview of the legislative session. Gov. Bob Ferguson’s first year in office has been shaped by a state […]

CCA revenues are expected to decline sharply in 2027–29, so using them to fund the working families tax credit would be an unsustainable one-time deal

Gov. Ferguson’s 2026 supplemental operating budget proposal would shift funding for working families tax credit (WFTC) remittances from the general fund–state (GFS, which is a fund subject to the outlook) to the climate commitment account (CCA) for 2025–27. Although the WFTC is an allowable use of the CCA (RCW 70A.65.260(1)(a)), making the shift would mean […]

Governor hasn’t made his current law operating budget publicly available

The governor is required by statute to propose a budget that balances within existing revenues (RCW 43.88.030). This is called the “current law” or “Book 1” budget. The statute allows the governor to also propose a budget that uses “revenue sources derived from proposed changes in existing statutes.” This is called the “new law” or […]

Gov. Ferguson’s operating budget proposal would reduce policy level spending by a net of $85.1 million

As I wrote last month, Gov. Ferguson’s 2026 supplemental operating budget proposal would increase appropriations for 2025–27 from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) by $1.159 billion. The maintenance level change (the cost of continuing current services, adjusted for caseloads and inflation) increases appropriations by $1.244 billion, but it is offset by net policy level […]