Emily Makings

Senate-passed income tax bill increases the amount of tax relief compared to the original version, and the governor is proposing additional relief provisions

The Senate passed the income tax bill (SB 6346) on Monday. I wrote about the bill as introduced here and here. Amendments were adopted by the Ways and Means Committee and on the Senate floor, some of which will have significant fiscal impacts. Some of the amendments made by the Ways and Means Committee include: […]

Inflation-adjusted state spending for K–12 has increased since 2020 (though growth has slowed compared to the McCleary response years)

Today, State Superintendent Reykdal noted the improved state revenue forecast and asked legislators to continue to increase state funding for K–12 education: With additional revenue expected, it is unclear whether further cuts to education are being considered. With a shortfall of nearly $1 billion per year in funding for the basic education that is granted […]

Since the current budget was adopted, revenues are up $166 million over the outlook period

According to the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC), revenues for funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) are now forecasted to be $1.856 billion higher over the outlook period (2023–25, 2025–27, and 2027–29) than had been forecasted in November. The forecast for 2025–27 increased by $827.4 million, to $75.276 billion. The forecast for 2027–29 increased […]

Income tax would increase revenues by more than $3 billion a year

The Department of Revenue (DOR) has now published a fiscal note for the income tax bill. According to DOR, the income tax would increase revenues by $2.717 billion in fiscal year 2029, $4.080 billion in 2030, and $3.487 billion in 2031. A small portion of these revenues would be allocated by the bill to specific […]

More proposals to modify last year’s tax package, including rolling back the estate tax rate increases

The 2025 tax package was rushed through at the very end of session, which led to a lot of uncertainty. As I wrote in December, several bills have been introduced for the 2026 session that would make changes to ESSB 5814 and ESSB 5794, which were part of the 2025 package. Other bills have been […]

Cataloging the Legislature’s tax increase proposals

An income tax is not the only tax increase being considered by the Legislature this year, even after enacting historically large tax increases last year. If enacted, the new proposals would add to an already high tax burden in Washington. This post catalogs the tax increases that have been introduced so far this year (it […]

How the income tax proposal would work and how the revenues would be used

The income tax bill language has now been introduced. SB 6346 and HB 2724 are identical; SB 6346 is scheduled for a public hearing in the Senate Ways & Means Committee on Friday. Before I get into the details of the text, I want to make three overarching points: Calculating the tax The bill would […]

Gov. Ferguson’s budget proposal would result in a shortfall of $1.880 billion in 2027–29 (plus, a separation-of-powers issue at the ERFC?)

On Tuesday, the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) met to adopt an official outlook based on Gov. Ferguson’s 2026 supplemental operating budget proposal. The outlook helps to illuminate the long-term impacts of his proposal, but the treatment of reversions prompted the Office of Financial Management (OFM) to claim that there could be a separation-of-powers […]

Federal spending reductions are not the cause of Washington’s budget problem

The Office of Program Research (OPR) estimates that the budget shortfall is $1.5 billion in 2025–27 and $4.3 billion over the four-year outlook. That estimate includes the November revenue forecast and adjustments to the maintenance level (the cost of continuing current or planned services, adjusted for inflation and enrollment). Some policymakers have blamed the federal […]

Should reversions be included in the outlook?

Last week, the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) met to approve a methodology for the official budget outlook based on Gov. Ferguson’s proposed 2026 supplemental. (The outlook itself will be presented and approved by the ERFC on Jan. 27.) The first question staff had for the ERFC was about reversion assumptions. As the methodology […]