As I wrote earlier this week, the House Office of Program Research (OPR) estimates that the maintenance level (the cost of continuing current services, adjusted for inflation and enrollment) for funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) will increase by $4.377 billion in 2025–27 and by $6.367 billion in 2027–29.

A full accounting of the maintenance level for 2025–27 (including the November caseload forecast) will not be possible until the governor releases his budget next week. In the meantime, OPR has provided a little more detail about where the cost drivers are.

Over FY 2025, 2025–27, and 2027–29, the largest contributor to the maintenance level increase is “all other,” followed closely by K–12. (OPR did not provide a breakdown of the “all other” category.)

• The “all other” category in the table includes the Department of Children, Youth, and Families (DCYF). Indeed, most of the “all other” maintenance level changes can be accounted for by DCYF, based on the agency’s budget request.
• The maintenance level changes to K–12 are due in part to the K–12 general inflation adjustment and the special education safety net adjustment.
• In the Department of Social and Health Services (DSHS), based on the agency’s budget request, the program areas most responsible for the maintenance level increase are long-term care, developmental disabilities, and the economic services administration.