The state’s gross fuel tax revenue forecast has not been meaningfully updated in a year
The June transportation revenue forecast was presented last Wednesday and published yesterday, but I won’t report the total numbers. They are dubious and irrelevant. The June forecast is suspect because the estimates for gross fuel tax revenues haven’t been updated since September 2023 (and in September, the change was very small—only $1 million over ten […]
July 01 , 2024 - Emily Makings
Happy Fiscal New Year!
Today is the first day of fiscal year 2025 and the beginning of the second year of the 2023–25 biennium. The 2024 supplemental operating budget increased appropriations from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) by $2.141 billion. Revised NGFO appropriations for 2023–25 total $71.945 billion, which is 15.8% higher than actual 2021–23 spending. (These figures […]
June 27 , 2024 - Emily Makings
Capital gains revenue forecast drops considerably
As Kriss wrote yesterday, the June forecast for revenues to funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) is down $476.7 million in 2023–25 and $189.0 million in 2025–27 compared to the February forecast. Reduced estimates of capital gains tax revenues are a major factor. For FY 2023, the state collected $847.5 million in capital gains taxes. […]
June 26 , 2024 - Kriss Sjoblom
Forecast of state revenues decreased
At its quarterly meeting this afternoon, the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) updated its forecasts of state revenues. These new forecasts decrease the amount of revenue expected over the current and next bienniums combined by a total of $665.7 million. Budget reports from legislative fiscal committees typically roll up four accounts: the general […]
June 18 , 2024 - Emily Makings
Delayed aspects of the Fair Start for Kids Act show up in the June caseload forecast, will factor into the next budget cycle
Last week the Caseload Forecast Council approved the June caseload forecast. This forecast is the first that includes fiscal years 2026 and 2027 (the 2025–27 biennium). As such, the forecast begins to incorporate some of the delayed impacts of Fair Start for Kids Act, which was enacted in 2021. As I wrote at the time, […]
June 14 , 2024 - Emily Makings
A 5.9% increase in Washington’s average annual wage will impact state benefit programs
According to the Employment Security Department (ESD), Washington’s average annual wage was $89,138 in 2023, a 5.9% increase over 2022. ESD reports, “The increase was driven by a 2.5% increase in employment and an 8.5% increase in total wages and salaries, which grew by nearly $24.6 billion in 2023.” The state average wage is used […]
June 13 , 2024 - Emily Makings
June carbon emission allowance auction proceeds came in below forecast; CCA appropriations are out of balance
As Kriss wrote yesterday, the prices paid for carbon emission allowances at the June 5th auction were much lower than were paid on average last year. The state won’t release the official auction public proceeds report until July 3. That said, if my calculations are correct, state revenues from the June 5th auction are $189.0 […]
June 12 , 2024 - Kriss Sjoblom
Updated estimates of CCA compliance costs
The Department of Ecology today reported the results of its second regular auction of Cap-and-Invest Program allowances for 2024, which was held on June 5th (link). On June 5th, Ecology offered for sale 5,260,000 of its own Vintage 2024 allowances and 542,333 Vintage 2024 allowances that had been consigned for sale by private parties. Separately, […]
May 21 , 2024 - Emily Makings
Capital gains tax revenues for tax year 2023 dropped by almost half
According to the Department of Revenue (DOR), the state has collected $433 million in capital gains taxes for tax year (TY) 2023 as of May 17. As of Jan. 2024, DOR had reported that TY 2022 capital gains collections totaled $896 million. However, based on the new information from DOR, it appears that additional late […]
May 15 , 2024 - Kriss Sjoblom
April report on state tax collections: revenues for the most recent month were $99.1 million short of the forecasted amount
Yesterday (May 14) the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) issued its monthly report on general fund revenue collections. This report covers payments received between April 11 and May 10 for the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest […]