Last week the Caseload Forecast Council approved the June caseload forecast. This forecast is the first that includes fiscal years 2026 and 2027 (the 2025–27 biennium). As such, the forecast begins to incorporate some of the delayed impacts of Fair Start for Kids Act, which was enacted in 2021. As I wrote at the time, the bill was initially funded with federal relief money and many spending increases were pushed out beyond the budget outlook window.

Under the Fair Start for Kids Act, the Early Childhood Education and Assistance Program (ECEAP) is an entitlement beginning in SY 2026–27. The act also increased the maximum income used to determine ECEAP eligibility effective FY 2027. Given these changes, the caseload forecast estimates that ECEAP enrollment will increase by 44.6% in FY 2027. Note that the beginning of the entitlement takes place in the second year of the 2025–27 biennium, so its full impact will first be felt in 2027–29. (The maximum income levels will increase again in SY 2030–31.)  

Additionally, the Fair Start for Kids Act increased the maximum income for determining eligibility in Working Connections Child Care effective FY 2026. Given that and other legislative changes to the program, the forecast estimates that caseloads will increase by 14.4% in FY 2026. Another increase to the maximum income is effective FY 2028, which is outside of the caseload forecast window but will be part of the budget outlook next year.

The increased caseloads for these programs in the forecast show that the changes the Legislature made in 2021 could be a constraint for legislators writing the 2025–27 budget next year.

Other notable points from the caseload forecast:

• For public schools enrollment, the June forecast is slightly higher than the February forecast (up 0.1% in SY 2023–24 and 0.2% in SY 2024–25). However, enrollment is expected to decline each year of the forecast. (See the chart below.)
• Special education enrollment increased by an estimated 7.6% in SY 2023–24 because the special education enrollment cap was increased from 13.5% to 15%. The forecast estimates that SY 2024–25 enrollment will increase by another 3.7% due to the increase in the enrollment cap from 15% to 16%.