Blog

New brief: I-2117: Repealing the Climate Commitment Act

Initiative 2117 would repeal the Climate Commitment Act (CCA). The CCA was enacted in 2021 with the goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions in the state to 5% of 1990 levels by 2050. The average price of carbon emission allowances at 2023 auctions was $54.74, more than twice the $22.78 anticipated in the 2021 fiscal […]

Collective bargaining agreements with state and non-state employees would increase GFS spending by $1.376 billion in 2025–27

The Office of Financial Management (OFM) has negotiated collective bargaining agreements with state and certain non-state employees for 2025–27. Generally, the CBAs for state employees include wage increases of 3% for FY 2026 and 2% for FY 2027 and they maintain the 85% employer contribution to health care. Additionally, the CBAs include targeted job classification […]

A new transportation revenue forecast: the great, the good, and the ugly

On Friday, the new Transportation Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (TERFC) approved its first transportation revenue forecast. This is great news for the public because it’s a huge improvement in transparency. It’s good news for the Legislature because the transportation revenue forecast is no longer on autopilot. But it’s also bad news because revenues are […]

Forecast of state revenues increased slightly

At its quarterly meeting last Friday, the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) updated its forecasts of state revenues. These new forecasts increase the amount of revenue expected over the current and next bienniums combined by a total of $29.9 million. Budget reports from legislative fiscal committees typically roll up four accounts: the general […]

New brief: I-2109: Repealing the State Capital Gains Tax

Initiative 2109 would repeal the state capital gains tax statute. The Office of Financial Management estimates that repealing the capital gains tax would reduce state revenues by $424 million in FY 2025, by $820 million in the 2025–27 biennium, and by $919 million in the 2027–29 biennium. The reductions would only affect the education legacy […]

Paid family and medical leave premium rate is projected to increase to 0.91% next year (and it could hit the statutory maximum in 2027)

According to the Employment Security Department, the paid family and medical leave (PFML) premium rate may rise to 0.91% next year. (This is not yet final because the rate is based on the account balance on Sept. 30. The final rate will be announced in October.) The PFML actuary, in a PFML advisory committee meeting […]

Is K–12 underfunded by $4 billion a year? (Plus, K–12 funding has increased since 2020)

Superintendent of Public Instruction Reykdal claims, in his office’s 2025–27 budget request, that “No matter how you look at the numbers, Washington currently underfunds K–12 education by around $4 billion per year.” This is an opinion, and Reykdal does not show his work for the calculation. Nevertheless, the Washington Observer slightly changes that wording and […]

New brief: I-2124: Making the State’s Long-Term Care Program Optional

If approved by voters, Initiative 2124 would make the long-term services and supports trust (LTSST) program optional for all workers. The Office of Financial Management believes that revenues to the LTSST account would decrease as workers choose to opt out of the program, but it does not estimate how many opt outs there would be. […]

Average workers’ compensation rates could increase by 3.8% in 2025

The Department of Labor & Industries (L&I) proposes increasing the average workers’ compensation rate by 3.8%. Under the proposal, rates would increase for 283 of 326 risk classes next year. According to L&I, “The proposed increase is slightly less than what L&I expects to pay out for 2025 claims, so the agency will make up […]

September carbon emission allowance auction proceeds were below forecast, growing the CCA budgetary imbalance

On September 4, the Department of Ecology sold 5,260,000 carbon emission allowances at a price of $29.88. Consequently, the amount collected by the state was $157.2 million. State revenues from the allowance auctions to date now total $2.306 billion. However, the revenues from the September auction are $59.5 million below what was assumed in Ecology’s […]