Blog

The size of the budget shortfall is in the eye of the beholder

Last week KIRO Newsradio called the size of the budget shortfall a “mystery.” Indeed, there is a wide range of estimates floating around: As I wrote last month, the size of the four-year shortfall depends on your assumptions about spending and revenues. The shortfall is the difference between forecasted resources and the projected cost of […]

Stop judging K–12 funding by its share of the state budget

Last week, Superintendent of Public Instruction Reykdal said that the state should make it a goal to direct 50% of the state budget to K–12. In 2019–21, K–12 made up 51.6% of spending from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO). In 2023–25, K–12 accounts for 43.4% of NGFO appropriations. Policymakers and others from both sides […]

For 2023–25, Legislature increased spending by 15.8% even though they expected revenues to increase by just 3.5%

As we wrote in our report on the causes of the projected budget shortfall, the Legislature adopted appropriations for 2023–25 that greatly exceeded expected revenues. Appropriations for 2023–25 are 15.8% higher than 2021–23 spending. At the time this appropriations level was adopted, revenues were expected to be just 3.5% higher in 2023–25 than in 2021–23. […]

Gov.-elect Ferguson’s savings proposals would begin to bring appropriations back in line with expected revenue

As I wrote on Friday, Gov.-elect Ferguson’s budget proposal is thin on details. Importantly, though, he argues that the first course of action is to reduce spending: “I am focused on identifying opportunities for savings first and will only focus on revenue after we have scrubbed the budget for savings and reductions.” Indeed, as we […]

Gov.-elect Ferguson’s budget sustainability principles (and some pre-filed bills on the budget process)

Yesterday, Gov.-elect Ferguson released a 16-page overview of his budget priorities for 2025–27. This is not a full budget and there are not a lot of specifics. However, it does provide an outline of his budget principles going into the legislative session. In our Anatomy of the Projected State Budget Shortfall report, we identified several […]

Inflation-adjusted per capita spending has grown by an average of 7.6% a biennium since the Great Recession, compared to an average of 2.8% before the Great Recession

Washington’s spending has grown dramatically since the Great Recession, even after accounting for inflation and population growth. Under Gov. Inslee’s operating budget proposal, inflation-adjusted per capita spending from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) would continue to increase. From 1993–95 to 2005–07, inflation-adjusted NGFO spending per capita grew by 18.2% (biennial growth averaged 2.8% a […]

Will the ECEAP entitlement ever be implemented?

The Early Childhood Education and Assistance Program (ECEAP) is a state-funded preschool program. It is currently scheduled to become an entitlement in SY 2026–27. However, Gov. Inslee’s budget would delay the entitlement until SY 2030–31, which is beyond the budget outlook window. If the Legislature enacts this delay, it would be the fourth time it […]

How big is the operating budget shortfall? (Hint: not $16 billion)

For 2025–27, the estimated cost of continuing current services is expected to exceed current resources. As we showed in an October report, this is not a revenue shortfall—revenues are expected to grow by $5.040 billion in 2025–27 and by $5.414 billion in 2027–29. Instead, the estimated shortfall is the result of legislative spending choices over […]

Compensation increases account for most of the net policy increases in Gov. Inslee’s operating budget proposal

Gov. Inslee’s operating budget proposal estimates that the maintenance level for 2025–27 (the cost of continuing current services, adjusted for inflation and enrollment) is $77.360 billion. That is $5.415 billion (7.5%) higher than enacted 2023–25 appropriations. On top of that, Gov. Inslee proposes adding a net of $2.086 billion in new policy, including $1.210 for […]

Gov. Inslee proposes a 10.4% increase in appropriations, funded in part by a wealth tax and B&O tax increases

Gov. Inslee’s 2025–27 operating budget proposal would appropriate $79.446 billion from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO). That is $7.501 billion (10.4%) higher than enacted appropriations for 2023–25. Of the spending increase, $2.097 billion would be new policy. The proposal would leave an unrestricted NGFO ending balance of $497 million in 2025–27 and $2.376 billion […]