Emily Makings

Proposed B&O tax increases in Seattle would narrow the tax base, increase revenue volatility, and encourage businesses to move jobs out of the city

In November, Seattle voters will decide if city business and occupation (B&O) tax rates should be increased. The proposed rate increases would be on top of statewide B&O tax increases that were adopted by the Legislature this year and several other business tax increases adopted recently by Seattle. Currently, Seattle’s B&O tax rates are 0.222% […]

Washington’s state and local taxes and spending per capita ranked 14th and 15th highest among the states in 2023

Last week, the U.S. Census Bureau released state and local fiscal data for fiscal year 2023. This data allows us to compare taxes and spending in Washington to other states. The two main ways to make these comparisons are to measure taxes and spending on a per capita basis and as a share of personal […]

The impact of federal Medicaid changes on the state budget is uncertain

Recent federal legislation made changes to Medicaid, which has led to concerns about the impacts to insured populations and the state budget. Medicaid is an optional program that is funded by the state and the federal government. Some populations and benefits are mandatory, and states may add other populations and benefits with federal approval. For […]

Washington’s workers’ compensation benefit costs remain the highest in the country; supplemental pension fund growth continues to increase

According to the National Academy of Social Insurance (NASI), Washington’s workers’ compensation benefit costs per covered worker are still the highest in the country. The most recent report was released in November 2024, and it covers data from 2022. In 2022, benefit costs in Washington were $854.28 per covered worker (up from $844.67 in 2021, […]

Legislature did not increase property tax growth limits, but it did allow school districts to increase their enrichment levies (if approved by voters)

When House and Senate Democrats announced a new tax package proposal on April 15, it included HB 2049. As introduced, HB 2049 would have increased the property tax growth limit for the state and local governments and increased the maximum per pupil limits for school district enrichment levies. At the time, I showed that the […]

State liability account problems escalating quickly

As I’ve written, the operating budget did not include a backfill for the state liability account, even though the Legislature knew that the account could end the 2023–25 biennium with a shortfall of up to $580 million. We’ve identified this as one of the choices the Legislature made that contribute to the unsustainability of the […]

Happy Fiscal New Year!

Today is the first day of fiscal year 2026 and the first day of the 2025–27 biennium. Unfortunately, the Legislature did not set the year up for success. First, as we’ve shown, the Legislature’s spending choices over the past several years led to a four-year $8.6 billion maintenance level shortfall (the difference between the cost […]

Better news in the transportation revenue forecast

The Transportation Economic and Revenue Forecast Council now estimates that transportation revenues will be higher than assumed in the enacted 2025–27 transportation budget. (By contrast, revenues from funds subject to the outlook are expected to be lower than assumed in the 2025–27 operating budget.) Economic changes in the transportation revenue forecast are estimated to increase […]

The June revenue forecast worsens the budget outlook

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) estimates that revenues from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) will be lower than expected when the 2025–27 operating budget was adopted earlier this year. Compared to the March revenue forecast (on which the adopted 2025–27 budget is based), the forecast for the current 2023–25 biennium increased by […]

The number of state employees is still growing, slowly

The Seattle Times reports, “As Washington grapples with a multibillion-dollar budget shortfall, some state agencies are starting the largest wave of layoffs since the Great Recession.” For context, Chart 1 shows total state full-time equivalent (FTE) employees over time. The budgets passed by the Legislature for 2025–27 increase FTEs compared to 2023–25, whereas FTEs decreased […]