With Friday’s revenue forecast, state revenues from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) are expected to be $6.699 billion higher through the outlook period (2019–21, 2021–23, and 2023–25) than had been forecast in March 2021 (which was the forecast the 2021–23 budget was based on). Compared to the June 2021 forecast, revenues for the six-year period are up $1.818 billion. (Kriss wrote about Friday’s forecast here.)

2019–21 revenues increased by 15.3% over 2017–19; revenues in 2021–23 and 2023–25 are now expected to increase by 11.7% and 6.3%, respectively. Adjusted for inflation, 2019–21 revenues were up 40.9% from the pre-Great Recession peak. Adjusted for inflation, per capita revenues in 2021 were up 31.6% from the pre-Great Recession peak.

Compared to the pre-pandemic Feb. 2020 forecast, revenues for the six-year period are expected to be $6.704 billion higher. The charts below show how the revenue forecast has changed since Feb. 2020. Although actual 2020 revenues were lower than had been forecast in Feb. 2020, actual 2021 revenues more than made up for that—revenues for the 2019–21 biennium were $441.8 million higher than forecast in Feb. 2020.