Blog

January 11 , 2022 - Emily Makings

To reduce administrative burden, Treasury’s final rule for the coronavirus state & local fiscal recovery fund includes a $10 million standard allowance for the revenue loss provision

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has released the final rule for the coronavirus state & local fiscal recovery funds (SLFRF). (An overview is available here.) The SLFRF is $350 billion in federal relief that was appropriated as part of the American Rescue Plan Act. This is a fairly flexible pot of relief money. It […]


December 27 , 2021 - Kriss Sjoblom

Update on personal income, consumer spending and saving rates during the COVID-19 recession

Here are updates of charts I have posted monthly regarding national income and consumer spending during the COVID-19 recession, including new numbers for November and revisions to numbers for prior months. Personal Income in November was 0.4% greater than in October and 13.6% less than the peak reached in March, which was boosted by the […]


December 16 , 2021 - Kriss Sjoblom

December report on state tax collections

The monthly report on general fund revenue collections from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) was issued yesterday afternoon. Yet again, the report shows overall revenues above forecast. For the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively […]


December 13 , 2021 - Kriss Sjoblom

Labor force participation

The labor force participation rate is the ratio between the number of people who are working or who say they are looking for work and the noninstitutional population age 16 or older. The participation rate’s behavior during and after the Covid-10 recession was unlike that during and after any other recession in the post-World War […]


November 24 , 2021 - Kriss Sjoblom

Update on personal income, consumer spending and saving rates during the COVID-19 recession

Here are updates of charts I have posted monthly regarding national income and consumer spending during the COVID-19 recession, including new numbers for October and revisions to numbers for prior months. Personal Income in October was 0.5% greater than in September and 13.9% less than the peak reached in March, which was boosted by the […]


November 24 , 2021 - Emily Makings

With November revenue and caseload forecasts and increased reversions, the four-year outlook has a very high unrestricted ending balance of $8.651 billion

As I noted yesterday, the state has an estimated $7.356 billion more in revenues from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) than was expected at the end of the 2021 legislative session. Additionally, the November caseload forecast indicates that the cost of continuing current services for this biennium will be $645.8 million less than expected […]


November 23 , 2021 - Emily Makings

State revenues are $7.356 billion higher than expected at the end of the legislative session

As Kriss wrote Friday, the state revenue forecast is up again. Chart 1 shows how much biennial revenues from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) have grown over the past few decades. Even adjusted for inflation, actual NGFO revenues for 2019–21 were 40.9% higher than the pre-Great Recession peak. Adjusted for inflation, NGFO revenues for […]


November 19 , 2021 - Kriss Sjoblom

Forecast of state revenues increased

At its quarterly meeting today, the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) updated its forecasts of state revenues. These new forecasts add more than $1.9 billion to the amount available over the current and next bienniums. Budget reports from legislative fiscal committees typically roll up four accounts: the general fund–state, the education legacy trust […]


November 16 , 2021 - Kriss Sjoblom

November report on state tax collections

The most recent monthly report on general fund revenue collections from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC), which was issued yesterday afternoon, once again shows overall revenues above forecast. This is getting to be boring For the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco […]


November 03 , 2021 - Emily Makings

Paid family and medical leave premiums will increase in 2022; this is one of several expected payroll tax increases for next year

According to the Employment Security Department (ESD), premiums for paid family and medical leave will increase to 0.6% beginning Jan. 1, 2022. The premium for this program is paid on gross wages up to the Social Security cap ($147,000 in 2022). The rate can range from 0.1% to 0.6%; if the balance ratio is sufficiently […]