This week the Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce released a study showing the impacts of the recession on the Seattle metro area. Some of the findings:

• Gross business revenues were down $13.4 billion year-to-date through June 2020 (compared with the same period in 2019). Of those losses, $9.0 billion was in King County (including $3.5 billion in Seattle and $1.2 billion in Kent), $2.3 billion was in Pierce County, and $2.0 billion was in Snohomish County.
• $8.124 billion in lost wages in the second quarter of 2020.
• Taxable retail sales were down $900 million year-to-date through April 2020 (compared with the same period in 2019).

Such declines in business revenues and retail sales affect state and local tax revenues. The study estimates that business & occupation (B&O) taxes will be down $88 million this year and will grow more slowly through 2025 than they did between 2014 and 2019. Similarly, sales tax revenues are estimated to drop by $860 million and are expected to grow more slowly through 2025 than the did before this year.

The study provides an important caution: “The decisions that policymakers pursue to backfill lost revenue and/or to reduce services may create secondary impacts for residents and businesses that could either promote or stall economic recovery. These decisions will also take place as businesses face rising costs in other areas such as unemployment insurance.”

Meanwhile, last month the Association of Washington Cities released the results of a survey showing the impacts of the recession and pandemic on cities. The survey was answered by 128 cities and towns (46 percent of the cities in Washington), and responses were collected between May 13 and June 8. Of the respondents, 89.6 percent said they are expecting revenue losses due to COVID-19. For many cities the expected reductions are large: For FY 2020 losses, 66 cities (55.5 percent) said the reductions would be 5–15 percent and 40 cities (33.6 percent) said the reductions would be more than 15 percent. For FY 2021 losses, 50 cities (52.6 percent) said the reductions would be 5–15 percent and 13 cities (13.7 percent) said the reductions would be more than 15 percent.

In response, 69.9 percent had eliminated travel and training, 54.2 percent had frozen hiring, 44.4 percent had frozen spending, 41.7 percent had reduced or eliminated programs, and 34.6 percent had used operating reserves. Additionally, 114 cities had waived or deferred utility late fees, 49 cities had implemented small business assistance programs, and 25 cities had implemented rental assistance programs.