In a policy brief last week, we showed that the state does not have a shortfall in the operating budget. With today’s revenue collections report, the budget outlook has improved again. As Kriss wrote earlier, the most recent month of collections came in $269.5 million above the November 2020 forecast.

I’ve added that figure to the estimated balance sheet below. The maintenance level estimates (the cost of continuing current services, adjusted for enrollment and inflation) are based on the governor’s budget proposal (as revised by the Office of Financial Management this month).

I estimate that the unrestricted ending balance for funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) is $1.625 billion in 2019–21 and negative $1 million in 2021–23. Including the rainy day fund, total reserves are estimated to be $2.344 billion at the end of 2021–23.

At this point, any new taxes would be for new policies.