February 17, 2021
Today’s monthly report from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) on general fund revenue collections once again brought good news.
For the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively the Revenue Act receipts), this report covers payments received between January 11 and February 10, which generally relate to transactions that occurred in the month of December.
For liquor taxes, cigarette tax, property tax, real estate excise tax, unclaimed property and other sources, the report covers payments received between January 1 and January 31.
The total amount received was $2,036.1 million. This was $269.5 million (15.3%) more than the amount expected under the forecast that ERFC adopted on November18th. Revenue Act taxes exceeded forecast by $278.27 million (17.9%). Here is a chart showing seasonally adjusted Revenue Act receipts since 2004.
Non-Revenue Act taxes fell short of forecast by $9.8 million (-4.7%). Within the latter grouping, the real estate excise tax (REET) exceeded forecast by $34.4 million, while property tax was $37.0 short of forecast. Regarding REET, ERFC notes:
This month once again showed a large surplus in real estate excise tax (REET) collections, which came in $34.4 million (56.6%) higher than forecasted. Sales of large commercial property (property valued at $10 million or more) decreased to a still-high $772 million from last month’s total of $3.36 billion. Residential sales increased from last month’s level. Seasonally adjusted taxable activity decreased from last month’s near-record level but remained high. Cumulatively, collections are now $164.7 million (68.2%) higher than forecasted.
This is the third collections report since the ERFC adopted its current forecast, on November 18th. Cumulatively revenues are now $591.6 million (9.0%) above that forecast. There will be one more collections reports before EFRC next meets to revise its forecast, on March 17. That revised forecast will be used by legislative budget writers.
The collections report is available here.Categories: Budget , Economy.