As Kriss wrote yesterday, the June 2021 revenue forecast is up substantially over the March 2021 forecast (on which the 2021–23 budget is based). (The numbers in this post are for funds subject to the outlook, or NGFO.) Through 2023–25 (the second biennium of the outlook), the forecast increased by $4.881 billion ($838 million in 2019–21, $1.798 billion in 2021–23, and $2.245 billion in 2023–25). Of that, $3.675 billion is due to economic changes and $1.206 billion is due to legislative changes (mainly the capital gains tax).

Similarly, over the six-year period, revenues are up $4.886 billion over what had been forecast in Feb. 2020 (the last forecast before the pandemic).

The charts show how the forecast has changed over the past year. We are not just back to pre-pandemic levels—revenues are now well above what had been anticipated at the beginning of last year.

The official budget outlook, based on the March 2021 revenue forecast and the enacted budgets, estimated that the unrestricted NGFO ending balance would be $83 million in 2023–25. With the increased revenues, I estimate that the unrestricted 2023–25 ending balance is instead $4.9 billion.