As Kriss wrote last week, the November forecast of revenues from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) is up compared to the September forecast. Compared to the March revenue forecast (on which the enacted 2023–25 budget is based), the current forecast is up $2.933 billion (over the 2021–23, 2023–25, and 2025–27 biennia).

That increase includes $588 million in 2021–23, which ended June 30. Most of the 2021–23 increase from March to November came in the education legacy trust account (ELTA), which is a fund subject to the outlook (along with the general fund–state, the opportunity pathways account, and the workforce education investment account). In turn, over half of the ELTA increase in 2021–23 is attributable to capital gains tax revenues. The March 2023 forecast estimated that capital gains tax revenues to the ELTA would be $248.0 million for 2021–23. The actual figure was $500.0 million.

(According to the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, the actual amount collected from the capital gains tax in 2021–23 was $847.5 million. Of that, $500.0 million went to the ELTA and $347.5 million went to the common school construction account. According to the Department of Revenue, the state collected a net total of $889.3 million from the capital gains tax in calendar year 2023. Thus, $41.8 million of taxes paid on 2022 activity will be accounted for as fiscal year 2024 revenues.)

Gov. Inslee will use this revenue forecast to develop his 2024 supplemental operating budget proposal. I’ve been writing about the agency requests for the supplemental; they give an idea of the costs that could be funded with the $2.933 billion. The funds could also be used to help defray the costs of fish passage barrier removal. (As I wrote earlier today, forecasted changes to transportation revenues are not enough for that purpose.)