As Kriss wrote earlier this week, the December and January collections reports showed that state revenues have so far come in $323.1 million higher the November revenue forecast.

The balance sheet below includes these higher collections. The maintenance level estimates are from Gov. Inslee’s budget proposal. (These are the estimated costs of continuing current services, adjusted for inflation and enrollment. The maintenance level figures will continue to be refined as the budget process goes on.) The balance sheet does not include the governor’s proposed new spending items or his proposed tax increases.

As things stand today, I estimate that the unrestricted ending balance for funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) is $1.349 billion in 2019–21 and negative $289 million in 2021–23. It looks like the budget stabilization account (BSA, or the rainy day fund) balance will be about $2.509 billion in 2021–23. Those funds would easily cover the small shortfall in 2021–23. New taxes are not needed to fill a revenue shortfall in the current budget.

Additionally, the federal relief bill that was passed in December sent more funding to Washington, and with the change in power in DC, the chances for even more (and more flexible) funding for states have probably increased.

There is still a lot of uncertainty, but so far the budget outlook has only improved since last summer. The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council will approve an official budget outlook based on Gov. Inslee’s proposed budget next week.