State tax collections again exceed forecast

By: Kriss Sjoblom
9:27 pm
January 20, 2021

Today’s monthly report from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) on general fund revenue collections once again brought good news.

For the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively the Revenue Act receipts), this report covers payments received between December 11 and January 10, which generally relate to transactions that occurred in the month of November.

For liquor taxes, cigarette tax, property tax, real estate excise tax, unclaimed property and other sources, the report covers payments received between December 1 and December 31.

The total amount received was $2,013.6 million. This was $260.7 million (14.9%) more than the amount expected under the forecast that ERFC adopted on November18th. Revenue Act taxes exceeded forecast by $115.7 million (8.8%). Non-Revenue Act taxes exceeded forecast by $145.2 million (33.8%). Within the latter grouping, the real estate excise tax (REET) exceeded forecast by $98.0 million (104.3%). ERFC notes:

Sales of large commercial property (property valued at $10 million or more) jumped to $3.36 billion from last month’s total of $716 million. These large sales alone generated $98.2 million in REET. Residential sales were close to last month’s level.

Here is a chart showing the value of transactions subject to REET, monthly, since 2002.

This is the second collections report since the ERFC adopted its current forecast, on November 18th. Cumulatively revenues are now $323.1 million (6.7%) above that forecast. There will be two more collections reports before EFRC next meets to revise its forecast, on March 17. That revised forecast will be used by legislative budget writers.

The collections report is available here.

Categories: Budget , Categories , Economy.