The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) now estimates that revenues from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) will be $844 million lower over the outlook period than anticipated in the November 2024 forecast.

Compared to the November forecast, the forecast for the current 2023–25 biennium increased by $55 million, to $66.445 billion. The forecast for 2025–27 decreased by $479 million, to $70.952 billion. The forecast for 2027–29 decreased by $420 million, to $76.425 billion. The total decrease over the three biennia is $844 million.

Compared to the February 2024 forecast, on which the enacted operating budget is based, the March forecast is down by $560 million in 2023–25, $769 million in 2025–27, and $523 million in 2027–29. The total decrease over the three biennia is $1.852 billion.

Note that although the revenue forecast is lower than expected in February, NGFO revenues are still expected to increase by $4.507 billion from 2023–25 to 2025–27 and by $5.473 billion from 2025–27 to 2027–29.

The ERFC also presents optimistic and pessimistic alternative revenue forecasts. Under the optimistic alternative, which is assigned a 20% probability, revenues would exceed the baseline by $806 million in 2023–25 and by $4.374 billion in 2025–27. Under the pessimistic alternative, which is assigned a 30% probability, revenues would fall short of the baseline by $884 million in 2023–25 and by $4.772 billion in 2025–27.