Reflecting better than anticipated economic performance ERFC increased the forecast by $279 million in September and by $304 million in November. It is likely that in February ERFC will again revise the forecast upward. As legislators prepare their supplemental budget they should not assume that this pattern of regular increases to the forecast will continue. History shows that forecasts eventually turn down and that downward revisions tend to be larger in magnitude than the upward revisions that proceeded them.

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