Blog

An estimate of the size of the current shortfall, and how the Senate and House would close it

Determining the size of a budget shortfall is more subjective than you might think. It involves numerous assumptions, and various parties don’t always agree on what those assumptions should be. On top of that, everyone has a different idea of how much new spending should be added. In a supplemental budget year, shortfalls occur when […]

Legislature keeps kicking the can down the road

The cause of the state’s operating budget shortfall is, ultimately, that in 2023–25, the Legislature chose to spend $4.8 billion more than the state collected in revenues. (All figures in this post are in terms of funds subject to the outlook, or NGFO.) The budget balanced thanks to the use of one-time funds. The budget […]

Notable provisos in the House operating budget and minimal committee amendments in the House and Senate

The Senate Ways & Means Committee and the House Appropriations Committee amended their chairs’ operating budget proposals yesterday. The amendments are very minor in terms of their fiscal impact—they are rounding errors in the overall outlook. Amendments adopted by Ways & Means would increase 2025–27 appropriations from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) by $983,000 […]

Policy changes in the House Chair’s operating budget proposal

As I wrote on Monday, the House Appropriations Committee Chair proposes increasing appropriations from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) by $2.074 billion compared to enacted 2025–27 appropriations. Of that, $1.734 billion is maintenance level (the cost of continuing current services, adjusted for enrollment and inflation) and $340.5 million is net new policy. (The House […]

Major policy changes and notable provisos in the Senate Chair’s operating budget proposal

The Senate Ways & Means Committee Chair’s supplemental operating budget proposal would increase 2025–27 appropriations from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) by $2.286 billion. (Yesterday I provided an overview of the proposal.) The increase in appropriations is comprised of a maintenance level (the cost of continuing current services, adjusted for enrollment and inflation) increase […]

House Appropriations Committee Chair proposes increasing appropriations by 2.7%

The House Appropriations Committee Chair is proposing a 2026 supplemental operating budget that would increase appropriations from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) by $2.074 billion (2.7%). This is $211.6 million less than proposed by the Senate Ways and Means Committee Chair. Of the increase, $1.734 billion is maintenance level (the cost of continuing current […]

Senate Ways & Means Committee Chair’s operating budget proposal would increase appropriations by 2.9%

The Senate Ways & Means Committee chair is proposing a 2026 supplemental operating budget that would increase appropriations from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) by $2.286 billion (2.9%) over enacted appropriations for 2025–27. This would bring revised appropriations for the biennium up to $80.144 billion. Of the increase, $1.734 billion is at the maintenance […]

House-passed bill would make LEOFF 1 surplus easily accessible to budget writers

Last Friday, the House passed E2SHB 2034. The bill would terminate the Law Enforcement Officers’ and Firefighters’ retirement system Plan 1 (LEOFF 1), which has been closed to new members since 1977, and create a restated LEOFF defined benefit retirement fund. As of June 30, 2024, LEOFF 1 was estimated to be 160% funded. HB […]

Inflation-adjusted state spending for K–12 has increased since 2020 (though growth has slowed compared to the McCleary response years)

Today, State Superintendent Reykdal noted the improved state revenue forecast and asked legislators to continue to increase state funding for K–12 education: With additional revenue expected, it is unclear whether further cuts to education are being considered. With a shortfall of nearly $1 billion per year in funding for the basic education that is granted […]

Since the current budget was adopted, revenues are up $166 million over the outlook period

According to the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC), revenues for funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) are now forecasted to be $1.856 billion higher over the outlook period (2023–25, 2025–27, and 2027–29) than had been forecasted in November. The forecast for 2025–27 increased by $827.4 million, to $75.276 billion. The forecast for 2027–29 increased […]