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NGFO revenues are now forecasted to be $844 million lower than in the November forecast

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) now estimates that revenues from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) will be $844 million lower over the outlook period than anticipated in the November 2024 forecast. Compared to the November forecast, the forecast for the current 2023–25 biennium increased by $55 million, to $66.445 billion. The forecast […]

December forecast of Climate Commitment Act revenues is $201.6 million lower than the June forecast (over five years)

The Department of Ecology estimates that carbon emission allowance auction proceeds will total $2.248 billion in 2023–25, $1.643 billion in 2025–27, and $1.248 billion in 2027–29. Compared to Ecology’s Nov. 2023 forecast (on which enacted appropriations from Climate Commitment Act accounts were based), the December 2024 forecast is $330.2 million lower for 2023–25 and $129.8 […]

Several tax increases under consideration in Washington would be the largest in over 30 years (at least)

State revenues for funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) are currently expected to increase by $5.040 billion from 2023–25 to 2025–27. The estimated budget problem for 2025–27 is the result of legislative spending choices. Nevertheless, several tax increases have been introduced in the Legislature and proposed by former Gov. Inslee and the Senate Democratic Caucus. […]

Remaining tax increases floated by Senate Democrats would increase property and real estate excise taxes and add new taxes on self-storage units and firearms

As I’ve written, the revenue options under consideration by the Senate Democratic Caucus (SDC) include business and occupation (B&O) tax increases, a payroll tax, a wealth tax, and increases to the capital gains tax rate. The remaining tax increases included in their options would increase the property tax growth limit, increase the real estate excise […]

Potential increases to the capital gains tax rate could increase revenues by over 30%

Last month, several revenue options being discussed by the Senate Democratic Caucus (SDC) were made public. One of the ideas is to increase the capital gains tax rate. (I’ve previously written about their ideas for business and occupation tax increases, a payroll tax, and a wealth tax.) Under current law, the capital gains tax rate […]

Beware the revenue estimates for proposed wealth taxes

Former Gov. Inslee proposed a wealth tax as part of his 2025–27 operating budget proposal, along with business and occupation (B&O) tax increases. Similarly, revenue options from the Senate Democratic Caucus that were made public last month include two versions of a wealth tax. (For previous posts on the revenue options, see here and here.) […]

Taxes paid by businesses in Washington are the 10th highest in the nation, on a per-employee basis

According to the Council on State Taxation (COST), Washington businesses paid $10,100 in state and local taxes per employee in fiscal year 2023, the 10th highest amount among the states. (Note that the states with the four highest per-employee taxes paid by business are Alaska, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Wyoming—all resource extraction states that […]

A potential state payroll tax would increase business taxes by 46%

Some revenue options being considered by the Senate Democratic Caucus (SDC) were made public last month. (I wrote earlier about their business and occupation tax ideas.) The largest tax on employers on their list is a payroll tax of 6.2%. The tax would be paid by employers on the total compensation “paid to employees making […]

Inslee, Senate Democratic Caucus revenue ideas would significantly increase B&O taxes

Even though legislative spending choices are the cause of the projected operating budget problem, former Gov. Inslee proposed major new tax increases as part of his 2025–27 operating budget proposal. Similarly, several “revenue options” from the Senate Democratic Caucus (SDC) were made public last month. These proposals would significantly increase business taxes. Businesses already pay […]

No help for operating budget writers in the November revenue and caseload forecasts

As Kriss wrote last week, state revenues are now expected to be lower than forecasted in September. Compared to the February revenue forecast (on which the current budget is based), revenues from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) are now expected to be $1.008 billion lower through the outlook period (2023–25, 2025–27, and 2027–29). Note, […]