Paid family and medical leave premium rate is projected to increase to 0.91% next year (and it could hit the statutory maximum in 2027)
According to the Employment Security Department, the paid family and medical leave (PFML) premium rate may rise to 0.91% next year. (This is not yet final because the rate is based on the account balance on Sept. 30. The final rate will be announced in October.) The PFML actuary, in a PFML advisory committee meeting […]
September 19 , 2024 - WRC
New brief: I-2124: Making the State’s Long-Term Care Program Optional
If approved by voters, Initiative 2124 would make the long-term services and supports trust (LTSST) program optional for all workers. The Office of Financial Management believes that revenues to the LTSST account would decrease as workers choose to opt out of the program, but it does not estimate how many opt outs there would be. […]
September 12 , 2024 - Emily Makings
September carbon emission allowance auction proceeds were below forecast, growing the CCA budgetary imbalance
On September 4, the Department of Ecology sold 5,260,000 carbon emission allowances at a price of $29.88. Consequently, the amount collected by the state was $157.2 million. State revenues from the allowance auctions to date now total $2.306 billion. However, the revenues from the September auction are $59.5 million below what was assumed in Ecology’s […]
September 11 , 2024 - Emily Makings
Budget-related notes from the gubernatorial debate
During the gubernatorial debate last night, two budget-related points were made that I think deserve some context. (The Seattle Times has video here.) First, Bob Ferguson said that the Climate Commitment Act (CCA) “helps fund a working families tax credit. That’s helping out working families all across the state. We need to expand the amount […]
August 05 , 2024 - Emily Makings
Contrary to the public investment impact disclosure, I-2109 would not impact school construction funding
This year will be the first in which “public investment impact disclosures” will appear on the ballot, along with the ballot titles for I-2109, I-2117, and I-2124. (Initiative texts, fiscal impact statements, and public investment impact disclosures are available here. There is a lawsuit about the applicability of the public investment impact disclosures to these […]
July 31 , 2024 - Emily Makings
Capital gains tax revenues are not dedicated to the Fair Start for Kids Act, and targeting education spending at 50% of the budget would be questionable policy
The Seattle Times interviewed the gubernatorial candidates about education spending. The resulting news story makes editorial comments about the adequacy of state spending and is inaccurate about the use of capital gains revenues. First, in a few places the story ties the capital gains tax to the Fair Start for Kids Act, which made enhancements […]
July 12 , 2024 - Emily Makings
State tax collections increased 5.8% in FY 2023; B&O taxes increased by 9.9%
State tax collections in fiscal year 2023 totaled $35.388 billion, according to the Department of Revenue (DOR). That’s an increase of 5.8% over 2022. (DOR published its Tax Statistics report for FY 2023 last month.) Of the top three tax sources, business and occupation (B&O) tax collections increased the most in FY 2023, by 9.9%. […]
June 27 , 2024 - Emily Makings
Capital gains revenue forecast drops considerably
As Kriss wrote yesterday, the June forecast for revenues to funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) is down $476.7 million in 2023–25 and $189.0 million in 2025–27 compared to the February forecast. Reduced estimates of capital gains tax revenues are a major factor. For FY 2023, the state collected $847.5 million in capital gains taxes. […]
May 21 , 2024 - Emily Makings
Capital gains tax revenues for tax year 2023 dropped by almost half
According to the Department of Revenue (DOR), the state has collected $433 million in capital gains taxes for tax year (TY) 2023 as of May 17. As of Jan. 2024, DOR had reported that TY 2022 capital gains collections totaled $896 million. However, based on the new information from DOR, it appears that additional late […]
April 11 , 2024 - Emily Makings
Seattle’s payroll expense tax is expected to become the city’s largest tax source this year
Seattle’s Office of Economic and Revenue Forecasts (OERF) presented the April 2024 revenue forecast on Monday. (The presentation is here and the full forecast is here.) The OERF estimates that payroll expense tax (PET) revenues will increase from $315.2 million in 2023 to $394.7 million in 2024. The PET is a highly volatile tax source—it […]