Blog

Heed the pessimistic forecast

The economic and revenue forecast council (ERFC) is required to prepare three separate forecasts of state revenues: a baseline forecast, a pessimistic forecast and an optimistic forecast. The pessimistic and optimistic forecasts help to quantify the ERFC’s uncertainty concerning the baseline. The ERFC further quantifies this uncertainty by assigning probabilities to the three forecasts. The […]

New brief: Minimal Losses to Local Revenues in 2020 Are Largely Offset by Additional Federal Relief

Local government taxes and revenues were largely sustained in 2020. State taxes increased by 4.2% in FY 2020 and by 11.7% in FY 2021. Meanwhile, in CY 2020, taxes grew by 5.3% in Washington’s counties and fell by 2.9% in Washington’s cities. However, from 2010 through 2017, city tax growth exceeded that of the state. […]

State revenues are now $10.129 billion higher than expected at the end of the 2021 legislative session

Yesterday, Kriss wrote about the February revenue forecast, which estimates that—compared to the Nov. 2021 forecast—revenues in funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) will increase by $1.453 billion in 2021–23 and $1.320 billion in 2023–25. Revenues are expected to continue to grow going forward, though at a slower rate than we’ve experienced coming out of […]

February report on state tax collections

The monthly report on general fund revenue collections from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) was issued this morning. For the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively the Revenue Act receipts), this report covers payments received […]

Senate passes bill that would reduce unemployment insurance taxes

Yesterday the Senate passed ESSB 5873 by a vote of 48–1. As passed by the Senate, the bill would reduce the unemployment insurance (UI) cap on costs to be recovered by the social tax for 2022 and 2023. (For more background, see here.) In 2021, the social cost factor was limited to 0.5%. Under current […]

Update on personal income, consumer spending and saving rates during the COVID-19 recession

Here are updates of charts I have posted monthly regarding national income and consumer spending during the COVID-19 recession, including new numbers for December and revisions to numbers for prior months. Personal Income in December was 0.3% greater than in November and 13.1% less than the peak reached in March, which was boosted by the […]

To reduce administrative burden, Treasury’s final rule for the coronavirus state & local fiscal recovery fund includes a $10 million standard allowance for the revenue loss provision

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has released the final rule for the coronavirus state & local fiscal recovery funds (SLFRF). (An overview is available here.) The SLFRF is $350 billion in federal relief that was appropriated as part of the American Rescue Plan Act. This is a fairly flexible pot of relief money. It […]

Update on personal income, consumer spending and saving rates during the COVID-19 recession

Here are updates of charts I have posted monthly regarding national income and consumer spending during the COVID-19 recession, including new numbers for November and revisions to numbers for prior months. Personal Income in November was 0.4% greater than in October and 13.6% less than the peak reached in March, which was boosted by the […]

December report on state tax collections

The monthly report on general fund revenue collections from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) was issued yesterday afternoon. Yet again, the report shows overall revenues above forecast. For the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively […]

Labor force participation

The labor force participation rate is the ratio between the number of people who are working or who say they are looking for work and the noninstitutional population age 16 or older. The participation rate’s behavior during and after the Covid-10 recession was unlike that during and after any other recession in the post-World War […]