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Ratings agencies continue to give high marks to Washington’s budget sustainability practices

The state treasurer’s office reports that Washington’s credit still has a high rating going into the new fiscal year. Washington’s general obligation bond debt continues to be rated Aaa by Moody’s and AA+ by S&P and Fitch. In making the ratings, the three agencies highlighted Washington’s strong fiscal governance, including the state’s revenue forecasting process, […]

Initial claims by sector

Here are two charts presenting initial claims for unemployment insurance by sector in Washington state for the four-week period from May 31 to June 28. The first chart shows the number of claims by sector. The five sectors with the greatest number of claims were, in descending order, health services and social assistance; accommodation and […]

Trade continued to decline in May

In May, container volumes at the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA) declined by 23.8 percent over May 2019. Year-over-year volumes have now declined for nine consecutive months. According to the NWSA, through May there have been 46 canceled sailings, “driven by COVID-19 and the lingering trade dispute with China.” The Puget Sound Business Journal reports that […]

In Washington 47,792 filed initial claims for unemployment insurance last week

This morning the state Employment Security Department (ESD) gave its weekly report on unemployment insurance claims. A note of caution about initial claims numbers: In May, Washington’s unemployment insurance system was hit by a rash of fraudulent claims (press release here). ESD has estimated that the value paid out for fraudulent claims is in the […]

Nationwide, 1,427,000 filed for unemployment insurance last week

The U.S. Department of Labor issued its weekly report on initial claims for unemployment insurance this morning. Nationwide, the number of seasonally adjusted claims was 1,427,000 last week. This is 55,000 less than the (upwardly revised) number of claims for the previous week, 1,482,000. The 4-week moving average of seasonally adjusted claims was 1,503,750, down […]

Happy Fiscal New Year!

What’s happy about it, I find myself grumbling. Given the bad news from the June revenue forecast, the pandemic, and the recession, it doesn’t feel much like a clean slate. Nevertheless, today is the first day of fiscal year 2021 and the second year of the 2019–21 biennium. FY 2021 is expected to be the […]

In Washington 44,469 filed initial claims for unemployment insurance last week

This morning the state Employment Security Department (ESD) gave its weekly report on unemployment insurance claims. A note of caution about initial claims numbers: In May, Washington’s unemployment insurance system was hit by a rash of fraudulent claims (press release here). As a result, the unemployment insurance claims data released weekly by ESD have overstated […]

Nationwide, 1,480,000 filed for unemployment insurance last week

The U.S. Department of Labor issued its weekly report on initial claims for unemployment insurance this morning. Nationwide, the number of seasonally adjusted claims was 1,480,000 last week. This is 60,000 less than the (upwardly revised) number of claims for the previous week, 1,540,000. The 4-week moving average of seasonally adjusted claims was 1,620,750, down […]

The June caseload forecast and implications for the next budget

Yesterday the Caseload Forecast Council presented the June caseload forecast. The forecast includes caseloads for education; corrections; public assistance; children’s services; medical assistance; and aging, long term, and early support. Not surprisingly, the forecasts for many of the areas have changed significantly since February. Among the caseloads whose forecasts for 2020 and 2021 have increased […]

Initial claims by sector

Here are four charts presenting initial claims for unemployment insurance reported by Washington state’s Employment Security Department (ESD) by sector for the period from March 1 to June 13. A note of caution about initial claims numbers: In May, Washington’s unemployment insurance system was hit by a rash of fraudulent claims (press release here). As […]