Four Charts on Washington Personal Income
The Bureau of Economic Analysis updated its estimates of state-level personal income on Wednesday, with numbers through the 4th quarter of 2010 (BEA press release). Here are 4 charts using the new data.
March 21 , 2011 - Richard S. Davis
More thoughts on the revenue forecast and budget shortfall
Kriss posted the WRC policy brief on the March revenue forecast. Today, Crosscut ran my article on the forecast and budget gap. A couple of excerpts: Lawmakers facing a multi-billion dollar shortfall will want to spend everything Raha has identified for them. They shouldn’t. Remember, he also said downside risks are twice as high as […]
March 18 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
Brief on March Revenue Forecast
We have posted a Policy Brief on the March revenue forecast, which can be downloaded through this link.
March 14 , 2011 - Richard S. Davis
Perspectives on public pension problems…
Over the last week, we’ve seen some conflicting reports on the status of state and local plans nationally. A McClatchy story carried in several local papers suggested that the widely cited problems have been overblown. Quick dissent followed, but let’s allow the no-problem voices to go first. From McClatchy: There’s simply no evidence that state […]
March 13 , 2011 - Richard S. Davis
Consumer confidence falls sharply
Kriss noted that state revenue collections were falling below projections, signaling a possible large downward revision in the forecast that will be released March 17. The predictive art faces increasing challenges in a dynamic and changing global economy, as discussed here and here. Now factor in another sign of tough times ahead. U.S. consumer sentiment […]
March 11 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
March Economic and Revenue Update
The state’s monthly economic and revenue update (commonly called the collections report) is out today and can be downloaded here. Adjusting for the shift of certain taxpayers from quarterly to monthly reporting frequency, revenue for the February 11 to March 10 reporting month was $65 million below forecast. Adjusted revenue for the previous month was […]
March 09 , 2011 - Richard S. Davis
No pot of gold likely in St. Patrick's Day state revenue forecast ….
That’s the theme of my column today. Given the increasing difficulty of forecasting state revenues and the significant downside risks, I suggest legislators underspend the revenue forecast this year. And, they should resist the temptation to kick the can forward with one-time gimmics. That these ideas continue to surface signals a lack of legislative seriousness, […]
March 08 , 2011 - Richard S. Davis
Economic growth the Seattle Way … or not
Two reports today present sharply contrasting views of the Puget Sound region’s economy and prospects. In the New York Times, Harvard economist Edward L. Glaeser sings Seattle’s praises. Seattle is one of the few large cities outside the Sun Belt that is growing more quickly than the country as a whole. The city’s growth reveals […]
March 08 , 2011 - Richard S. Davis
Editorial support for bipartisan Senate workers' compensation bill…
The Senate passed ESB 5566 last weekend, a good workers’ compensation bill that will move Washington closer to the national mainstream, benefiting both injured workers and employers. The Washington Research Council last year published Mainstreaming Workers’ Compensation: Reforms for 2010. The bill refines several of our recommendations and represents a major step forward for the […]
March 03 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
Pew-Rockefeller Study of State Revenue Forecast Accuracy
The Pew Center on the States and the Rockefeller Institute of Government have released a study of the accuracy of state revenue estimates. Here are the first three paragraphs from the press release: WASHINGTON — States have been making more serious errors in estimating their revenues during tough economic times, according to a new report […]