Consumer confidence falls sharply
Kriss noted that state revenue collections were falling below projections, signaling a possible large downward revision in the forecast that will be released March 17. The predictive art faces increasing challenges in a dynamic and changing global economy, as discussed here and here. Now factor in another sign of tough times ahead. U.S. consumer sentiment […]
March 11 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
March Economic and Revenue Update
The state’s monthly economic and revenue update (commonly called the collections report) is out today and can be downloaded here. Adjusting for the shift of certain taxpayers from quarterly to monthly reporting frequency, revenue for the February 11 to March 10 reporting month was $65 million below forecast. Adjusted revenue for the previous month was […]
March 09 , 2011 - Richard S. Davis
No pot of gold likely in St. Patrick's Day state revenue forecast ….
That’s the theme of my column today. Given the increasing difficulty of forecasting state revenues and the significant downside risks, I suggest legislators underspend the revenue forecast this year. And, they should resist the temptation to kick the can forward with one-time gimmics. That these ideas continue to surface signals a lack of legislative seriousness, […]
March 08 , 2011 - Richard S. Davis
Economic growth the Seattle Way … or not
Two reports today present sharply contrasting views of the Puget Sound region’s economy and prospects. In the New York Times, Harvard economist Edward L. Glaeser sings Seattle’s praises. Seattle is one of the few large cities outside the Sun Belt that is growing more quickly than the country as a whole. The city’s growth reveals […]
March 08 , 2011 - Richard S. Davis
Editorial support for bipartisan Senate workers' compensation bill…
The Senate passed ESB 5566 last weekend, a good workers’ compensation bill that will move Washington closer to the national mainstream, benefiting both injured workers and employers. The Washington Research Council last year published Mainstreaming Workers’ Compensation: Reforms for 2010. The bill refines several of our recommendations and represents a major step forward for the […]
March 03 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
Pew-Rockefeller Study of State Revenue Forecast Accuracy
The Pew Center on the States and the Rockefeller Institute of Government have released a study of the accuracy of state revenue estimates. Here are the first three paragraphs from the press release: WASHINGTON — States have been making more serious errors in estimating their revenues during tough economic times, according to a new report […]
March 02 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
More on January Employment
As I noted on this blog yesterday, the state Employment Security Department estimates that, seasonally adjusted, the number of nonfarm jobs in Washington state was 11,000 greater in January than in December. An article in today’s Seattle Times (State’s Monthly Job Results Good, But There’s A Catch) makes much too big a deal of the […]
March 01 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
January Employment
The Employment Security Department released today the employment situation report for January. The headline numbers look good. Seasonally adjusted, the state added 11,000 jobs in January, and the state unemployment rate fell two-tenths, from 9.3 percent to 9.1 percent. The private sector added 11,600 jobs: service producing industries added 13,700 jobs, while goods producing industries […]
February 25 , 2011 - Richard S. Davis
Unemployment insurance compromise tough to replicate for workers' comp reform
In the Puget Sound Business Journal today, my column examines the 2011 legislative session’s big accomplishment so far: an agreement on unemployment insurance that drew overwhelming bipartisan support. It’s a good deal, providing tax relief to 90 percent of the state’s employers and increasing benefits for 70,000 unemployed workers. Conditions aligned for this to be […]
February 24 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
Preliminary March Economic Forecast
The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council posted the Preliminary March Economic Forecast today. The summary memo from Arun Raha (ERFC Executive Director) to the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors is here; calendar year tables are here; fiscal year tables are here. With regards to the national economy Raha’s memo has this good news: The near-term […]