Blog

Brief on March Revenue Forecast

We have posted a Policy Brief on the March revenue forecast, which can be downloaded through this link.

Perspectives on public pension problems…

Over the last week, we’ve seen some conflicting reports on the status of state and local plans nationally. A McClatchy story carried in several local papers suggested that the widely cited problems have been overblown. Quick dissent followed, but let’s allow the no-problem voices to go first. From McClatchy: There’s simply no evidence that state […]

Consumer confidence falls sharply

Kriss noted that state revenue collections were falling below projections, signaling a possible large downward revision in the forecast that will be released March 17. The predictive art faces increasing challenges in a dynamic and changing global economy, as discussed here and here. Now factor in another sign of tough times ahead. U.S. consumer sentiment […]

March Economic and Revenue Update

The state’s monthly economic and revenue update (commonly called the collections report) is out today and can be downloaded here. Adjusting for the shift of certain taxpayers from quarterly to monthly reporting frequency, revenue for the February 11 to March 10 reporting month was $65 million below forecast. Adjusted revenue for the previous month was […]

No pot of gold likely in St. Patrick's Day state revenue forecast ….

That’s the theme of my column today. Given the increasing difficulty of forecasting state revenues and the significant downside risks, I suggest legislators underspend the revenue forecast this year. And, they should resist the temptation to kick the can forward with one-time gimmics. That these ideas continue to surface signals a lack of legislative seriousness, […]

Economic growth the Seattle Way … or not

Two reports today present sharply contrasting views of the Puget Sound region’s economy and prospects. In the New York Times, Harvard economist Edward L. Glaeser sings Seattle’s praises. Seattle is one of the few large cities outside the Sun Belt that is growing more quickly than the country as a whole. The city’s growth reveals […]

Editorial support for bipartisan Senate workers' compensation bill…

The Senate passed ESB 5566 last weekend, a good workers’ compensation bill that will move Washington closer to the national mainstream, benefiting both injured workers and employers. The Washington Research Council last year published Mainstreaming Workers’ Compensation: Reforms for 2010. The bill refines several of our recommendations and represents a major step forward for the […]

Pew-Rockefeller Study of State Revenue Forecast Accuracy

The Pew Center on the States and the Rockefeller Institute of Government have released a study of the accuracy of state revenue estimates. Here are the first three paragraphs from the press release: WASHINGTON — States have been making more serious errors in estimating their revenues during tough economic times, according to a new report […]

More on January Employment

As I noted on this blog yesterday, the state Employment Security Department estimates that, seasonally adjusted, the number of nonfarm jobs in Washington state was 11,000 greater in January than in December.  An article in today’s Seattle Times (State’s Monthly Job Results Good, But There’s A Catch) makes much too big a deal of the […]

January Employment

The Employment Security Department released today the employment situation report for January. The headline numbers look good. Seasonally adjusted, the state added 11,000 jobs in January, and the state unemployment rate fell two-tenths, from 9.3 percent to 9.1 percent. The private sector added 11,600 jobs: service producing industries added 13,700 jobs, while goods producing industries […]