The state’s monthly economic and revenue update (commonly called the collections report) is out today and can be downloaded here.

Adjusting for the shift of certain taxpayers from quarterly to monthly reporting frequency, revenue for the February 11 to March 10 reporting month was $65 million below forecast. Adjusted revenue for the previous month was $21 million below forecast; for the two months before that the combined adjusted shortfall was $25 million.

The economic and revenue forecast council will update its forecast of general fund revenue next Thursday (March 17). With a total shortfall for the four months of about $110 million, it’s a safe bet that the forecast will be revised downward. The question is how much. The distressing fact is that the gap between collections and the existing forecast has increased month by month. This suggests that the downward revision will be large.