As I noted on this blog yesterday, the state Employment Security Department estimates that, seasonally adjusted, the number of nonfarm jobs in Washington state was 11,000 greater in January than in December.  An article in today’s Seattle Times (State’s Monthly Job Results Good, But There’s A Catch) makes much too big a deal of the fact that the raw numbers (unadjusted for normal seasonal hiring and firing patterns) show a drop of 47,100 jobs from December to January.

Seasonally adjusted data show Washington added about 11,000 jobs in January, according to the Employment Security Department. The department said it was the largest monthly gain in the statistically adjusted jobs figures since November 2007, the month before the start of the nation’s recession.

But there’s a wrinkle: Those seasonally adjusted statistics — the most closely watched and widely reported job numbers — eliminate the predictable fluctuations occurring each year when stores hire for the holidays or schools let out for summer.

Without that adjustment, the state’s economy actually lost 47,100 jobs from December to January, as the holiday season ended and employers in the retail, construction and hospitality industries eliminated jobs.

To understand the underlying trends, it is critically important to look beyond the seasonal ups and downs. Economists use sophisticated mathematical algorithms to filter out the seasonal noise. The first chart below shows nonfarm employment in Washington state monthly, from January 2000 to January 2011, both without seasonal adjustment (blue) and with seasonal adjustment (red). In normal (non-recession) years, employment peaks in November, declines modestly in December and then declines by a greater amount in January.

The second chart shows January job losses for the 11 years from 2000 to 2011. This January’s 47,100 job drop was smaller than the drops in each of the ten preceding Januarys.

The fact that the January job drop was only 47,100 is good news for the long-term unemployed.