The Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction has asked the Legislature to provide K–12 enrollment stabilization funding for school year (SY) 2021–22, according to an email sent by OSPI this morning. Effectively, this proposal would hold schools nearly harmless even as enrollment is now expected to be lower than the level previously funded.

State funding for schools is tied to enrollment. Common schools enrollment declined in SY 2020–21. Consequently, for the 2021 supplemental, the maintenance level (the cost of continuing current services, adjusted for enrollment and inflation) for public schools was estimated to be down $505.8 million. The 2021 supplemental and 2021–23 biennial budgets included $123.7 million from state funds subject to the outlook for enrollment stabilization. That was on top of $2.409 billion in general federal relief funding for public schools.

As I wrote last week, the February 2021 caseload forecast—which the maintenance level for the 2021–23 budget was based on—assumed that school enrollment would bounce back in SY 2021–22. That did not happen. The November caseload forecast estimates that enrollment will be essentially flat at the SY 2020–21 level for both SY 2021–22 and SY 2022–23 (the forecast ends there). This change to the forecast is estimated to save the state $521.8 million in 2021–23. (The chart below is from the forecast.)

In the email, OSPI writes,

Budget writers and many others made the reasonable assumption at the end of the 2021 legislative session that enrollments would return to normal for the 2021-22 school year. The unforeseeable but significant impacts of COVID variants and vaccine availability timing for our youngest learners has delayed the return for some students. We believe that reducing funding available to schools based on these temporary enrollment declines will reduce learning recovery and acceleration services to students and undermine the system’s ability to respond to the needs of returning students and families.

(Emphasis added.) It is not clear from the caseload forecast that these enrollment declines will be temporary; indeed, no bounce back is included in the forecast at this time.

OSPI’s proposal (with enrollment funding impacts by district) is available here. It compares 2021 enrollment to 2019 enrollment and estimates that 243 districts would experience funding losses. OSPI is asking for $522.3 million to provide districts about 90% of their lost funding.