Executive Director Steve Lerch presented the preliminary June economic forecast at a meeting of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council today. Here is the TVW video of the meeting:

And here are the “notebooks” for the meeting, including copies of Dr. Lerch’s slides.

As I noted in my May 29 post, the new economic forecast differs little from the March economic forecast, which was used in preparing the March revenue forecast. Overall employment is a bit weaker in the new forecast than in the old. However construction employment (which has an outsized impact on state revenue collections) is a bit stronger in the new forecast. Personal income is also a bit stronger under the new forecast. Collections for the March 11 to May 10 period were $86 million greater than expected under the March revenue forecast. Based on all this, I suspect that the June revenue forecast (due on June 18) will show a modest improvement from the March revenue forecast.