The most recent monthly report on general fund revenue collections from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC), which was issued last Tuesday, showed revenues significantly above forecast.

For the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively the Revenue Act receipts), this report covers payments received between May 11 and June 10, which generally relate to transactions that occurred in the month of April.

For liquor taxes, cigarette tax, property tax, real estate excise tax, unclaimed property and other sources, the report covers payments received between May 1 and May 30.

The total amount received was $3,561.6 million, $299.1 million (9.2%) more than the amount expected under the forecast that ERFC adopted on March 17th. This was 33.0% more than was collected during the same period last year, when the economy was disrupted by the pandemic. And it was a remarkable 25.6% more than the amount collected during the same period in 2019, prior to the pandemic.

Revenue Act taxes (primarily the sales, use, utility, and business and occupations taxes) exceeded forecast by $231.8 million (16.2%). Here is a chart showing seasonally adjusted Revenue Act receipts since 2004:

Non-Revenue Act taxes exceeded forecast by $65.9 million (3.6%). The total amount of property tax received, $1,697.6 million, exceeded forecast by $40.0 million (2.4%). Regarding the property tax, ERFC staff note:

This month’s collections represent the bulk of the spring installment of the semiannual tax, which was due at the county level on April 30. About $300 million in payments are expected to be tabulated next month, however, so the surpluses of the last two months could merely represent payments that came in earlier than expected.

Real estate excise tax (REET) exceeded forecast by $15.8 million (13.8%), although the value of large commercial property sales was much lower month-over-month. Here is a chart showing the value of transactions subject to REET since 2002:

The ERFC will meet tomorrow to revise its forecasts of state revenues. (A video link to this meeting is available here.) Over the last three months, collections have exceeded forecast by $644.4 million (9.6%). I expect ERFC will increase it’s forecast for the 2021-23 biennium by significantly more than that amount.

The collections report is available here.