As part of its fiscal impact statement for I-502, the Office of Financial Management estimated that excise taxes and license fees on legalized marijuana would increase state revenues by $434.2 million in FY 2015, $447.2 million in FY 2016, and $460.6 million in FY 2017.

Now, as reported by the Seattle Times, Washington’s new marijuana consultant says the state may not even get half that amount. Under OFM’s estimate, marijuana tax collections would be in the same ballpark as cigarette tax collections, which accounted for 2.63 percent of all state tax collections in FY 2012. If the consultant is right, marijuana tax collections could be similar to those from liquor liter and liquor sales tax collections combined.

You’ll notice in the chart that collections from both the cigarette tax and the beer excise tax jumped in 2011. Both taxes were increased in 2010. (For details, see this brief.) The beer tax increase was to be temporary, through June 30, 2013. In her 2013-15 budget proposal, former Gov. Gregoire proposed extending it through December 31, 2016, which would increase revenues by $101 million for the biennium.

Now Gov. Inslee has proposed making the beer tax permanent and extending it to small brewers (who were exempt from the original tax). This is estimated to increase revenues by $128 million for the biennium.