Economy

Initial claims charts

Emily posted earlier today about the jump in initial claims for unemployment insurance. The first of these charts shows the four-week moving average of claims. Claims are usually shown as a four-week average in order to dilute week to week volatility. In the present situation, averaging hides the story. Here is a chart without averaging.

A big increase in unemployment claims, and how Washington is using unemployment insurance to respond to outbreak

Today the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) reported that national unemployment insurance (UI) claims for the week ending March 14 increased by 70,000, to 281,000 (seasonally adjusted): “During the week ending March 14, the increase in initial claims are clearly attributable to impacts from the COVID-19 virus.” Non-seasonally adjusted data by state is available: For […]

Challenges for revenue forecasters and state budgets

Bill Lucia has a good story in Route Fifty on how the coronavirus outbreak could affect state budgets, with a heavy focus on Washington and some insights into Washington’s revenue forecasting and spending process. David Schumacher, director of Washington’s Office of Financial Management, said that when he looks at the public health crisis in his […]

An estimate of how coronavirus could impact Seattle’s budget

The Seattle Times reports, Seattle budget director Ben Noble’s team last week estimated the city could collect $110 million less than expected in general-fund tax revenue this year due to an economic breakdown caused by the virus and by efforts to slow its spread, said Noble. This would be a reduction of about 7 percent, […]