State tax collections again exceed forecast

By: Kriss Sjoblom
10:02 pm
May 19, 2021

Monday’s monthly report from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) on general fund revenue collections once again showed revenues significantly above forecast.

For the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively the Revenue Act receipts), this report covers payments received between April 11 and May 10, which generally relate to transactions that occurred in the month of March.

For liquor taxes, cigarette tax, property tax, real estate excise tax, unclaimed property and other sources, the report covers payments received between April 1 and April 30.

The total amount received was $2,212.0 million. This was $266.1 million (13.7%) more than the amount expected under the forecast that ERFC adopted on March 17th. Revenue Act taxes exceeded forecast by $183.0 million (11.6%). Here is a chart showing seasonally adjusted Revenue Act receipts since 2004:

Non-Revenue Act taxes exceeded forecast by $82.3 million (22.3%). Property tax exceeded forecast by $55.7 million (28.2%). Cigarette taxes fell $5.7 million (21.4%) short of the forecast. Real estate excise tax (REET) exceeded forecast by $27.6 million (26.3%).

For the property tax, the excess

primarily represents higher-than-expected early payment of the spring installment of the semi-annual tax, which was due at the county level on April 30. The bulk of the spring payments, totaling around $2 billion, will be tabulated next month.

For the cigarette tax, the shortfall

stemmed from a higher-than-expected level of deferred payments for stamps purchased in April. Payment for these stamps will increase next month’s collections.

For REET,

sales of large commercial property (property valued at $10 million or more) increased to $1.46 billion from last month’s revised total of $570 million. Seasonally adjusted taxable activity increased from last month’s already-high level. Cumulatively, collections are now $35.4 million (17.1%) higher than forecasted.

Here is a chart showing the value of transactions subject to REET since 2002:

The collections report is available here.

Categories: Budget , Economy.