The House GOP released a “fund education first” budget proposal yesterday, adding a net $556 million in K-12 spending as a down payment on McCleary. (We always say “down payment” because the state Supreme Court expects considerably more by 2017. This is the year lawmakers have to show a good faith effort.) Here’s the Republicans’ summary of their proposal.

PSHB 1057 would increase K-12 education funding by $903 million for the 2013-15 budget cycle, with $817 million based on the McCleary decision and $86 million dedicated to other policy enhancements. It would include: $302 million for K-3 class-size reduction; $229 million to expand full-day kindergarten to 61 percent of school districts in the 2013-14 school year, prioritizing high-poverty school districts, and to all school districts in the 2014-15 school year; $158 million for full implementation of increased instructional hours for grades 7-12 by the 2014-15 school year; and $128 million for a 29 percent increase in materials, supplies and operating costs (MSOC).

The lower net amount is due to suspension of teacher pay initiative, a savings of $295 million, plus some lesser reductions detailed in the proposal summary.

The Seattle Times reports on the proposal and the philosophical chasm dividing the Legislature.

The budget has little chance of becoming law, as Republicans are at a 43-to-55 minority in the House. But it offers a window into the thinking of the GOP, which runs the state Senate.

Senate Republicans have been reluctant to say how much more money they want to dedicate to education, so far only offering a window of between $500 million and $1.5 billion.

Many Democrats, especially in the House, believe the court order mandates additional spending as high as $1.7 billion.

The GOP proposal gets things started. Next week’s revenue forecast will accelerate the debate. Today’s economic news underscores the risks associated with forecasting in uncertain times:

Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Falls to Lowest Point in Year.  And well below forecasters’ expectations.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for March fell to 71.8, the lowest level since December 2011, from 77.6 in February. The gauge was projected to increase to 78, according to the median estimate of 67 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Calculated Risk has the graph.

Add to that the increased employer concern with rising health care costs under the ACA. The Wall Street Journal includes reactions from The Boeing Company.

Employers are bracing for a little-noticed fee in the federal health-care law that will charge them $63 for each person they insure next year, one of the clearest cost increases companies face when the law takes full effect.

Companies and other plan providers will together pay $25 billion over three years to create a fund for insurance companies to offset the cost of covering people with high medical bills.

“Little-noticed.”

Most expectations are for a revenue forecast trim of $200 million or so next week, on top of the $300 million cost increase from higher Medicaid expenses revealed yesterday.

I would think it would be down a couple hundred million, but that’s just a guess,” [OFM director David] Schumacher said. “It’s not inside information.”

He’s in line with other guesses by state lawmakers. That big of a drop in projected revenue, along with Thursday’s hit, would bring the state shortfall to around $1.5 billion, not counting additional money for education demanded by the court.

If more bad economic news continues to trickle out, that could be the best case scenario.