September 16, 2021
The most recent monthly report on general fund revenue collections from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC), which was issued this morning, shows overall revenues above forecast.
For the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively the Revenue Act receipts), this report covers payments received between August 11 and September 10, which generally relate to transactions that occurred in the month of July.
For liquor taxes, cigarette tax, property tax, real estate excise tax, unclaimed property and other sources, the report covers payments received between August 1 and August 31.
The total amount received was $2,027.0 million, $72.3 million (3.7%) more than the amount expected under the forecast that ERFC adopted on June 23rd.
Revenue Act taxes (primarily the sales, use, utility, and business and occupations taxes) were $19.1 million (1.1%) above the amount forecasted. Here is a chart showing seasonally adjusted Revenue Act receipts since 2004:
Non-Revenue Act taxes exceeded forecast by $53.5 million (22.9%). Within this grouping, real estate excise tax (REET) exceeded forecast by $57.8 million. ERFC staff note:
The [REET] variance once more mainly sprang from sales of large commercial property (property valued at $10 million or more), which remained at a high level of $1.78 billion after last month’s revised total of $2.58 billion. Seasonally adjusted taxable activity decreased but remained elevated …
Here is a chart showing the value of transactions subject to REET since 2002:
The collections report is available here.
The EFRC will meet on September 24 to update the revenue forecast it adopted on June 23. I expect an upward revision. Over the last three months, collections have exceeded forecast by a total of $162.0 million.Categories: Budget , Economy.